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Forecasting Labor Supply in Urban China: Integrating Demographic Dynamics and Socioeconomic Transition (2000)
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BibTeX
@MISC{Xu00forecastinglabor,
author = {Ya Xu},
title = {Forecasting Labor Supply in Urban China: Integrating Demographic Dynamics and Socioeconomic Transition},
year = {2000}
}
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Abstract
China's urban labor market has been under growing pressure to meet the large job demands that are resulting from the Economic System Reform. For more than three decades during the Centrally Planned System, Chinese urban citizens have been guaranteed jobs by the government. Now, the crisis in the labor market might be a source of social unrest. Balancing the urban labor supply and demand has been considered not only an economic issue but also a political challenge. Therefore, a high quality forecast that aims at telling the labor supply dynamic is much needed. By integrating demographic and socioeconomic factors into one forecast model, this research examines the labor force development in urban China to the year 2020. The research shows that in the following 20 years, China's urban labor supply tends to grow at a rate of 2% per year. The development of the labor force tends to be most sensitive to the movement of three factors, namely, urbanization, expansion in higher education and th...
Keyphrases
urban china labor supply socioeconomic transition demographic dynamic urban labor supply economic issue political challenge social unrest high quality large job demand labor force development labor force centrally planned system urban labor market forecast model socioeconomic factor economic system reform labor market
