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...on that mediates the theoretical relation between fertility rates and income. Some models explicitly or implicitly assume that mothers have a comparative advantage in childbearing (e.g., Mincer 1963; =-=Becker 1965-=-). In these models, as the value of female time in the market increases, the opportunity cost of having children also increases; this tends to reduce the demand for children (substitution e¤ect) and c...

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...owth. To the extent that lower fertility rates are associated with higher levels of capital per capita (through lower capital dilution) and higher investment in human capital, particularly for women (=-=Goldin and Katz 2002-=-), the trends bode well for development and living standards in the poorest regions of the world.4 The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section II studies the time-series and cross-sectional...

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...roduction or sales, and so on.), the delivery system through which services were provided, the outlets for the mass-media campaigns, and the supplementary policies that accompanied the core measures (=-=Freedman and Berelson 1976-=-). Most countries began their family planning programs with a clinic-based approach that took advantage of the existing health infrastructure to provide modern contraceptive methods. This approach was...

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...09). Bangladesh publicized the slogans Boy or girl, two children are enoughand One child is ideal, two children are enough(Begum 1983). South Korea run the slogan Stop at two, regardless of sex(=-=Kim and Ross 2007-=-). Hong Kong chose Two is enough (Fan 2007), and so on. China took population planning to the extreme in 1979, when it imposed a coercive one-child policy. But the Chinese TFR actually started falli...

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...t really took o¤. Thesrst large-scale intervention was carried out by the Swedish government, which supported family planning e¤orts in Sri Lanka (then Ceylon), India, and Pakistan, starting in 1962 (=-=Sinding 2007-=-).13 10This and the following section draw heavily on Robinson and Ross (2007) who provide a compilation of case studies for 22 countries across the world on their family planning programs. 11This sen...

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...two children are enoughand One child is ideal, two children are enough(Begum 1983). South Korea run the slogan Stop at two, regardless of sex(Kim and Ross 2007). Hong Kong chose Two is enough (=-=Fan 2007-=-), and so on. China took population planning to the extreme in 1979, when it imposed a coercive one-child policy. But the Chinese TFR actually started falling signi…cantly before the one-child policy ...

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... publicized on billboards and even on the sides of buildings. Other slogans in India were A small family is a happy familyand Big family: problems all the way; small family: happiness all the way(=-=Khanna 2009-=-). Bangladesh publicized the slogans Boy or girl, two children are enoughand One child is ideal, two children are enough(Begum 1983). South Korea run the slogan Stop at two, regardless of sex(Ki...

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..., an assumption that mediates the theoretical relation between fertility rates and income. Some models explicitly or implicitly assume that mothers have a comparative advantage in childbearing (e.g., =-=Mincer 1963-=-; Becker 1965). In these models, as the value of female time in the market increases, the opportunity cost of having children also increases; this tends to reduce the demand for children (substitution...

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...e Chinese TFR actually started falling signi…cantly before the one-child policy was implemented. Indeed, the sharp decline started after 1973, with mass-media messages such as Later, longer, fewer (=-=Tien 1980-=-) and One is not too few, two, just right, and three, too many(Chang, Lee, McKibben, Poston and Walther, 2005). In Singapore, bumper stickers, coasters, calendars and key chains reinforcing the fami...