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...cific factors (societal, institutional, political, economical, technological) that enabled the rapid expansion of nuclear power in countries like Sweden and France. The question is highly complex and it is not clear whether the results of Table 2. Global projected population, economy and fossil electricity for 2014/2015. Parameter Value Source Total gross domestic product (GDP) 7.67 x 1013 $ (2014 US$) [17] 6.37 x 1013 $ (2005 US$) Population 7.21 billion [12] GDP/Capita 10654 $ (2014 US$) [17] [12] 8843$ (2005 US$) Fossil fuel electricity generation 1.51 x 1013 kWh/y (Projection is for 2015) [18] doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0124074.t002 Table 1. Production addition for the Swedish nuclear program and implications for global deployment rates of nuclear power if the same progression was followed worldwide. Time period Production addition Years to replace current global fossil electricity at Swedish rate globally kWh/y/y/capita kWh/y/y/1k$-GDP Per capita Per GDP Start of research to last grid connection, 1962–1986 322.5 12.4 6.5 19.2 Start of first construction to last grid connection, 1966–1986 383.9 14.7 5.5 16.1 First grid connection to last grid connection, 1972–1986 536.6 20.6 3.9 11.5...

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...n time in these national nuclear programs, finally, show how they can be compared meaningfully to the current global situation. Why consider a large-scale nuclear scenario? The operation of a nuclear reactor does not emit greenhouse gases or other forms of particulate air pollution, and it is one of few base-load alternatives to fossil energy sources currently available that has been proven by historical experience to be able to be significantly expanded and scaled up [6]. Large-hydro projects are geographically constrained and typical have widespread impacts on river basins [7]. The land use [8], and biodiversity [9] aspects of a large-scale expansion of biomass for energy make its use as a sustainable global energy source questionable. Monetary values presented in this paper are, unless otherwise stated, reported in the value of the US dollar in 2005. When needed, inflation adjustments were done using data as provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The year 2005 was chosen rather than 2014 because it is the current reference year for most major databases, including the World Bank data, and the reader can thus directly verify numbers appearing in this paper without the need ...

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...st unit construction time and costs, future electricity demand growth forecasts and the retiring of existing aging nuclear plants, our modelling estimates that the global share of fossil-fuelderived electricity could be replaced within 25–34 years. This would allow the world to meet the most stringent greenhouse-gas mitigation targets. Introduction Human industrial and agricultural activity is now the principal cause of changes in the Earth’s atmospheric composition of long-lived greenhouse gases, mainly carbon dioxide (CO2), and will be the driving force of climate change in the 21st century [1]. More than 190 nations have agreed on the need to limit fossil-fuel emissions to mitigate anthropogenic climate change, as formalized in the 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change [2]. However, the competing global demand for low-cost and reliable energy and electricity to fuel the rapid economic development of countries like China and India has led to a large expansion of energy production capacity based predominantly on fossil fuels. Because of this, human-caused greenhousegas emissions continue to increase, even though the threat of climate change from the burning PLOSONE |DOI:10.1371...

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...epted: February 26, 2015 Published: May 13, 2015 Copyright: © 2015 Qvist, Brook. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Data Availability Statement: All relevant data are within the paper and its Supporting Information file. Funding: The authors have no support or funding to report. Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. of fossil fuels is widely recognized [3]. There is therefore an urgent need to assess what energygeneration technologies could allow for deep cuts in greenhouse-gas emissions and air pollution while simultaneously allowing for a rapid expansion of economic activity and prosperity in the poorer regions of the world. Much recent attention has been given to the potential of, and constraints on, renewable energy [4]. Here we take a different tack, by making use of historical data from the Swedish nuclear program to model the feasibility of a massive expansion of nuclear power at a rate sufficient to largely replace the current electrici...

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...expensive (as a fraction of the total economy) or time-consuming to build now than in the past, if efficiently managed. Recent studies by the European Commission report that new nuclear generation is economically favorable versus other generation sources, especially if all externalities of other generation sources as well would be internalized [24]. In addition, recently published data suggest that cost escalations in the French nuclear program have been much smaller than previously stated, and that the cost escalation seen was caused to a large part by excessive scale-up of the reactor units [25]. The recent global focus on small modular reactors (SMRs) has the potential to greatly reduce both complexity and uncertainty regarding construction times for new reactor projects. While historic construction time data is available and reliable [16], cost-data is generally not clearly defined and in some cases not available at all. For the data of Table 3, all cost data for the recently constructed reactors are taken from press-releases due to the lack of officially published source data. It is worth noting is that only three countries connected new reactors to the grid in 2012–2014: China, I...

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...d on historical Swedish and French CO2 emissions, define the rate nuclear capacity was added, estimate the cost and construction time in these national nuclear programs, finally, show how they can be compared meaningfully to the current global situation. Why consider a large-scale nuclear scenario? The operation of a nuclear reactor does not emit greenhouse gases or other forms of particulate air pollution, and it is one of few base-load alternatives to fossil energy sources currently available that has been proven by historical experience to be able to be significantly expanded and scaled up [6]. Large-hydro projects are geographically constrained and typical have widespread impacts on river basins [7]. The land use [8], and biodiversity [9] aspects of a large-scale expansion of biomass for energy make its use as a sustainable global energy source questionable. Monetary values presented in this paper are, unless otherwise stated, reported in the value of the US dollar in 2005. When needed, inflation adjustments were done using data as provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The year 2005 was chosen rather than 2014 because it is the current reference year for most major data...

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...al nuclear programs, finally, show how they can be compared meaningfully to the current global situation. Why consider a large-scale nuclear scenario? The operation of a nuclear reactor does not emit greenhouse gases or other forms of particulate air pollution, and it is one of few base-load alternatives to fossil energy sources currently available that has been proven by historical experience to be able to be significantly expanded and scaled up [6]. Large-hydro projects are geographically constrained and typical have widespread impacts on river basins [7]. The land use [8], and biodiversity [9] aspects of a large-scale expansion of biomass for energy make its use as a sustainable global energy source questionable. Monetary values presented in this paper are, unless otherwise stated, reported in the value of the US dollar in 2005. When needed, inflation adjustments were done using data as provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The year 2005 was chosen rather than 2014 because it is the current reference year for most major databases, including the World Bank data, and the reader can thus directly verify numbers appearing in this paper without the need for inflation adjustme...

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...f the current nuclear fleet and the relative rates at which global energy consumption and GDP are growing. In order to build nuclear power plants at any of the rates of Table 1 on a global scale, nearly all construction would have to occur in countries with an already established and experienced nuclear regulatory and licensing infrastructure in place, at least in the initial expansion period. This fact presents no major hurdle since virtually all major world energy consumers, encompassing over 90 percent of global CO2 emissions, are nuclear power producers with active regulatory institutions [19]. Two features seen in all relatively rapidly expanding and successful nuclear programs were strong government involvement and support as well as some measure of technology standardization (indigenously designed PWRs in France, BWRs in Sweden). In this study we make no attempt at identifying and quantifying all the specific factors (societal, institutional, political, economical, technological) that enabled the rapid expansion of nuclear power in countries like Sweden and France. The question is highly complex and it is not clear whether the results of Table 2. Global projected population, eco...

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...ecade (+26% vs. +16% between 2000 and 2011) [12]. The rapidly increasing demand for electricity in economically less-developed countries and the closing of aging existing nuclear installations built in the 1960s and 1970s makes the challenge of replacing the share of fossil electricity even larger than it would first appear. Further, as electricity goals are met progressively, the world will face the added task of replacing all final energy demand—including transportation and industrial processes—with synthetic fuels and chemical batteries, based on zero-carbon sources of heat and electricity [27]. Balancing these factors, which act to increase the magnitude of the challenge, is the fact that today there is a mature world market with dozens of proven and licensed commercial nuclear power plant designs, almost half a century of engineering experience, and strong technology sharing and multilateral cooperation. There is thus no need for most countries in the 21st century to develop their own indigenous nuclear power plant designs (especially without the use of foreign licenses/patents), as was done in the 20th century Swedish program. GDP-weighted values of Table 1 have been used to esti...

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...elderived electricity could be replaced within 25–34 years. This would allow the world to meet the most stringent greenhouse-gas mitigation targets. Introduction Human industrial and agricultural activity is now the principal cause of changes in the Earth’s atmospheric composition of long-lived greenhouse gases, mainly carbon dioxide (CO2), and will be the driving force of climate change in the 21st century [1]. More than 190 nations have agreed on the need to limit fossil-fuel emissions to mitigate anthropogenic climate change, as formalized in the 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change [2]. However, the competing global demand for low-cost and reliable energy and electricity to fuel the rapid economic development of countries like China and India has led to a large expansion of energy production capacity based predominantly on fossil fuels. Because of this, human-caused greenhousegas emissions continue to increase, even though the threat of climate change from the burning PLOSONE |DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0124074 May 13, 2015 1 / 10 OPEN ACCESS Citation: Qvist SA, Brook BW (2015) Potential for Worldwide Displacement of Fossil-Fuel Electricity by Nuclear Energy in Three Decades ...

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...pacity impact on CO2 emissions in Sweden Between 1960 and 1990 Sweden more than doubled its inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) per capita while reducing its per capita CO2 emissions through a rapid expansion of nuclear power production. The reduction in CO2 emissions was not an objective but rather a fortunate by-product, since the effect on the climate by greenhouse-gas emissions was not a factor in political discourse until much more recently. Nuclear power was introduced to reduce dependence on imported oil and to protect four major Swedish rivers from hydropower installations [11]. As illustrated in Fig 1, in the pre-nuclear era (1960–1972), the rise in Swedish CO2 emissions matched and even exceeded the relative increase in economic output. Once commercial nuclear power capacity was brought online, however, starting with the Oskarshamn-1 plant in 1972, emissions started to decline rapidly. By 1986, half of the electrical output of the country came from nuclear power plants, and total CO2 emissions per capita (from all sources) had been slashed by 75% from the peak level of 1970. Displacement of Fossil-Fuel Electricity by Nuclear Energy PLOS ONE |DOI:10.1371/journal.po...

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...electrical output of the country came from nuclear power plants, and total CO2 emissions per capita (from all sources) had been slashed by 75% from the peak level of 1970. Displacement of Fossil-Fuel Electricity by Nuclear Energy PLOS ONE |DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0124074 May 13, 2015 2 / 10 Based on the data available in the World Bank database, this appears to be the most rapid installation of low-CO2 electricity capacity on a per capita basis of any nation in history (France and the U.S. installed more total nuclear capacity in the 1960 to 1980s, but less than Sweden on a per capita basis) [12]. Thus Sweden provides a historical benchmark ‘best-case scenario’ on which to judge the potential for future nuclear expansion. Nuclear electricity costs in Sweden have always included a surcharge corresponding to the full estimated costs of researching, building and operating a final repository for all nuclear waste. At the end of the nuclear expansion period, Swedish electricity prices (including taxes and surcharges) were among the lowest in the world, and the running cost of the nuclear plants (per kilowatt hour [kWh] produced) were lower than all other sources except for existing hydropo...

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...ides a historical benchmark ‘best-case scenario’ on which to judge the potential for future nuclear expansion. Nuclear electricity costs in Sweden have always included a surcharge corresponding to the full estimated costs of researching, building and operating a final repository for all nuclear waste. At the end of the nuclear expansion period, Swedish electricity prices (including taxes and surcharges) were among the lowest in the world, and the running cost of the nuclear plants (per kilowatt hour [kWh] produced) were lower than all other sources except for existing hydropower installations [13]. Emissions were reduced due to the closing of fossil power plants and the electrification (by nuclear power) of heating and industrial processes that were previously fossil powered. The total energy supply from crude oil and oil-derivative products dropped by 40% (from 350 terawatt hours per year [TWh/y] to 209 TWh/y) in the period 1970–1986. In the same time period, total electricity consumption doubled and the use of electricity for heating expanded by 5.5 times (from 4.7 TWh/y to 25.8 TWh/y) [14]. The rate at which nuclear electricity production can be added Out of the 12 commercial reacto...

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...tate phase of capacity expansion, nuclear power can be added at a rate of about 25 kWh/y/y/1k$-GDP, which, if multiplied by current global GDP (Table 2), amounts to ~1500 TWh/y/y (i.e., 10% of current global fossil-fuel electricity production when scaled to the worldwide economy). The peak annual addition rate per GDP in Sweden occurred 1980–1981 and corresponds to a GDP-weighted annual addition of 3000 TWh/y, or 20% of the current global fossil-fuel electricity production. Unit cost and construction time Despite the uncertainties on the economics and logistics of the recent nuclear expansion [21], the current global unit cost and construction-time of nuclear reactors are actually quite comparable to the Swedish experience. The relevant Swedish historical and modern (last two years) of data are presented in Table 3. With the exception of single first-of-a-kind projects like the highly delayed and poorly managed European Pressurized Reactor (EPR) at Olkilouto in Finland [22] and Flamanville in Fig 2. Swedish nuclear electricity production 1966–1986 [14]. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0124074.g002 Displacement of Fossil-Fuel Electricity by Nuclear Energy PLOS ONE |DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.012...

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...nnual addition of 3000 TWh/y, or 20% of the current global fossil-fuel electricity production. Unit cost and construction time Despite the uncertainties on the economics and logistics of the recent nuclear expansion [21], the current global unit cost and construction-time of nuclear reactors are actually quite comparable to the Swedish experience. The relevant Swedish historical and modern (last two years) of data are presented in Table 3. With the exception of single first-of-a-kind projects like the highly delayed and poorly managed European Pressurized Reactor (EPR) at Olkilouto in Finland [22] and Flamanville in Fig 2. Swedish nuclear electricity production 1966–1986 [14]. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0124074.g002 Displacement of Fossil-Fuel Electricity by Nuclear Energy PLOS ONE |DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0124074 May 13, 2015 5 / 10 France [23], global data does not suggest that nuclear plants are necessarily significantly more expensive (as a fraction of the total economy) or time-consuming to build now than in the past, if efficiently managed. Recent studies by the European Commission report that new nuclear generation is economically favorable versus other generation sources, especi...

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...nd construction-time of nuclear reactors are actually quite comparable to the Swedish experience. The relevant Swedish historical and modern (last two years) of data are presented in Table 3. With the exception of single first-of-a-kind projects like the highly delayed and poorly managed European Pressurized Reactor (EPR) at Olkilouto in Finland [22] and Flamanville in Fig 2. Swedish nuclear electricity production 1966–1986 [14]. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0124074.g002 Displacement of Fossil-Fuel Electricity by Nuclear Energy PLOS ONE |DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0124074 May 13, 2015 5 / 10 France [23], global data does not suggest that nuclear plants are necessarily significantly more expensive (as a fraction of the total economy) or time-consuming to build now than in the past, if efficiently managed. Recent studies by the European Commission report that new nuclear generation is economically favorable versus other generation sources, especially if all externalities of other generation sources as well would be internalized [24]. In addition, recently published data suggest that cost escalations in the French nuclear program have been much smaller than previously stated, and that the cost ...

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...i:10.1371/journal.pone.0124074.g002 Displacement of Fossil-Fuel Electricity by Nuclear Energy PLOS ONE |DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0124074 May 13, 2015 5 / 10 France [23], global data does not suggest that nuclear plants are necessarily significantly more expensive (as a fraction of the total economy) or time-consuming to build now than in the past, if efficiently managed. Recent studies by the European Commission report that new nuclear generation is economically favorable versus other generation sources, especially if all externalities of other generation sources as well would be internalized [24]. In addition, recently published data suggest that cost escalations in the French nuclear program have been much smaller than previously stated, and that the cost escalation seen was caused to a large part by excessive scale-up of the reactor units [25]. The recent global focus on small modular reactors (SMRs) has the potential to greatly reduce both complexity and uncertainty regarding construction times for new reactor projects. While historic construction time data is available and reliable [16], cost-data is generally not clearly defined and in some cases not available at all. For the dat...

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... thorium as their input, become widespread and economically competitive. The expansion of nuclear power production inevitably entails a proportional expansion of pressure-vessel fabrication capacity (large steelforging presses) as well an expansion of the entire nuclear fuel cycle: mining, enrichment, fuel fabrication, recycling/reprocessing and disposal. A truly global and sustainable expansion of the type analyzed here would necessitate a transition to fast reactor systems before the turn of the century to ensure adequate fuel supply and near-complete recycling of long-lived actinide wastes [26]. Table 3. Nuclear power plant construction time and cost comparison [11] [16] [12]. Parameter All nuclear units brought online 2012–2014 (April) Swedish nuclear program 1966–1986 # of units 8 12 Median unit capacity (MWe) 1018 935 Average unit capacity (MWe) 990 871 Median unit construction time 5.1 years 5.7 years Average unit construction time 5.8 years 5.9 years Median over-night unit cost per kWe (2005 USD) 1364* ~1400–1500† Average over-night unit cost per kWe (2005 USD) 1546 ~1400–1500† *Reactor cost data for recently constructed reactors was collected from official press releases. When...