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Solar total irradiance variations and the global sea surface temperature record. 1. Geophys. Res (1991)
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BibTeX
@MISC{Reid91solartotal,
author = {George C. Reid},
title = {Solar total irradiance variations and the global sea surface temperature record. 1. Geophys. Res},
year = {1991}
}
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Abstract
The record of globally averaged sea surface temperature (SST) over the past 130 years shows a highly significant correlation with the envelope of the I 1-year cycle of solar activity over the same period. This correlation could be explained by a variation in the sun's total irradiance (the solar "constant") that is in phase with the solar-cycle envelope, supporting and updating an earlier conclusion by Eddy (1976) that such variations could have played a major role in climate change over the past millennium. Measurements of the total irradiance from spacecraft, rockets, and balloons over the past 25 years have provided evidence of long-term variations and have been used to develop a simple linear relationship between irradiance and the envelope of the sunspot cycle. This relationship has been used to force a one-dimensional model of the thermal structure of the ocean (Hoffert et al., 1980), consisting of a 100-m mixed layer coupled to a deep ocean and including a thermohaline circulation. The model was started in the mid-seventeenth century, at the time of the Maunder Minimum of solar activity, and mixed-layer temperatures were calculated at 6-month intervals up to the present. The total range of irradiance values during the period was about 1%, and the total range of SST was about IøC. Cool periods, when temperatures were about 0.5øC below present-day values, were found in the early decades of both the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. There is direct evidence for the latter period from the historical SST record and some indirect evidence for the earlier cool period. While many aspects of the study are unavoidably simplistic, the results can be taken as indicating that solar variability has been an important contributor to global climate variations in recent decades. It has probably not been the only contributor, however, and in particular, the growing atmospheric burden of greenhouse gases may well have played an important role in the immediate past. This role is likely to become even more important in the near future. 1.
Keyphrases
global sea surface temperature record solar total irradiance variation solar activity cool period total range total irradiance past millennium early decade greenhouse gas sea surface temperature recent decade indirect evidence irradiance value 6-month interval long-term variation thermohaline circulation thermal structure twentieth century solar-cycle envelope solar constant important role significant correlation climate change present-day value important contributor mid-seventeenth century major role near future solar variability many aspect direct evidence maunder minimum global climate variation historical sst record sunspot cycle deep ocean simple linear relationship 100-m mixed layer 1-year cycle latter period immediate past one-dimensional model atmospheric burden mixed-layer temperature
