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When Politics and Models Collide: Estimating Models of Multi-Party Elections (1996)
| Venue: | American Journal of Political Science |
| Citations: | 89 - 7 self |
BibTeX
@ARTICLE{Alvarez96whenpolitics,
author = {R. Michael Alvarez and J. Nagler},
title = {When Politics and Models Collide: Estimating Models of Multi-Party Elections},
journal = {American Journal of Political Science},
year = {1996},
volume = {42},
pages = {55--96}
}
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Abstract
: Theory: The spatial model of elections can better be represented by using conditional logit than by multinomial logit. The spatial model, and random utility models in general, suffer from a failure to adequately consider the substitutability of candidates sharing similar or identical issue positions. Hypotheses: Multinomial logit is not much better than successive applications of binomial logit. Conditional logit allows for considering more interesting political questions than does multinomial logit. The spatial model may not correspond to voter decision-making in multiple-candidate settings. Multinomial probit allows for a relaxation of the IIA condition and this should improve estimates of the effect of adding or removing parties. Methods: Comparisons of binomial logit, multinomial logit, conditional logit, and multinomial probit on simulated data and survey data from a three-party election. Results: Multinomial logit offers almost no benefits over binomial logit. Conditional logit...
Keyphrases
multinomial logit conditional logit estimating model spatial model model collide binomial logit multi-party election multinomial probit iia condition interesting political question survey data successive application random utility model identical issue position three-party election multiple-candidate setting
