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Temperature prediction at critical points in district heating systems
BibTeX
@MISC{A_temperatureprediction,
author = {P. Pinson A and T. S. Nielsen A and H. Aa. Nielsen A and N. K. Poulsen A and H. Madsen A},
title = {Temperature prediction at critical points in district heating systems},
year = {}
}
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Abstract
Current methodologies for the optimal operation of district heating systems use model predictive control. Accurate forecasting of the water temperature at critical points is crucial for meeting constraints related to consumers while minimizing the production costs for the heat supplier. A new forecasting methodology based on conditional Finite Impulse Response (cFIR) models is introduced, for which model coefficients are replaced by coefficient functions of the water flux at the supply point and of the time of day, allowing for nonlinear variations of the time delays. Appro-priate estimation methods for both are described. Results are given for the test case of the Roskilde district heating system over a period of more than 6 years. The advantages of the proposed forecasting methodology in terms of a higher forecast accuracy, its use for simulation purposes, or alternatively for better understanding transfer functions of district heating systems, are clearly shown. Key words: forecasting, time series, finite impulse response, nonlinear time delay, district heating systems.
Keyphrases
critical point district heating system temperature prediction appro-priate estimation method time delay nonlinear variation forecasting methodology water flux nonlinear time delay supply point production cost model predictive control heat supplier optimal operation new forecasting methodology understanding transfer function simulation purpose finite impulse response accurate forecasting conditional finite impulse response water temperature model coefficient forecast accuracy coefficient function time series key word current methodology test case roskilde district heating system
