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Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment (1983)
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| Venue: | Psychological Review |
| Citations: | 461 - 6 self |
BibTeX
@ARTICLE{Tversky83extensionalversus,
author = {Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman},
title = {Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment},
journal = {Psychological Review},
year = {1983},
pages = {293--315}
}
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Abstract
Perhaps the simplest and the most basic qualitative law of probability is the conjunction rule: The probability of a conjunction, P(A&B), cannot exceed the probabilities of its constituents, P(A) and.P(B), because the extension (or the possibility set) of the conjunction is included in the extension of its constituents. Judgments under uncertainty, however, are often mediated by intuitive heuristics that are not bound by the conjunction rule. A conjunction can be more representative than one of its constituents, and instances of a specific category can be easier to imagine or to retrieve than instances of a more inclusive category. The representativeness and availability heuristics therefore can make a conjunction appear more probable than one of its constituents. This phenomenon is demonstrated in a variety of contexts including estimation of word frequency, personality judgment, medical prognosis, decision under risk, suspicion of criminal acts, and political forecasting. Systematic violations of the conjunction rule are observed in judgments of lay people and of experts in both between-subjects and within-subjects comparisons. Alternative interpretations of the conjunction fallacy are discussed and attempts to combat it are explored. Uncertainty is an unavoidable aspect of the the last decade (see, e.g., Einhorn & Hogarth, human condition. Many significant choices must be based on beliefs about the likelihood
Keyphrases
conjunction fallacy probability judgment extensional versus intuitive reasoning conjunction rule criminal act within-subjects comparison last decade word frequency einhorn hogarth inclusive category human condition personality judgment lay people many significant choice unavoidable aspect political forecasting specific category intuitive heuristic alternative interpretation systematic violation availability heuristic medical prognosis basic qualitative law
