DMCA
MSSD DISCUSSION PAPER NO. 21 GLOBAL FOOD DEMAND AND THE CONTRIBUTION OF LIVESTOCK AS WE ENTER THE NEW MILLENNIUM by
BibTeX
@MISC{Delgado_mssddiscussion,
author = {Christopher L. Delgado and Claude B. Courbois and Mark W. Rosegrant},
title = {MSSD DISCUSSION PAPER NO. 21 GLOBAL FOOD DEMAND AND THE CONTRIBUTION OF LIVESTOCK AS WE ENTER THE NEW MILLENNIUM by},
year = {}
}
Share
 |
 |
 |
 |
||
OpenURL
Abstract
People in developed countries currently consume about 3 to 4 times as much meat and fish, and 5 to 6 times as much milk products per capita as in developing Asia and Africa. Meat, milk, and fish consumption per capita has barely grown in the developed countries as a whole over the past 20 years. Yet poor people everywhere clearly desire to eat more animal protein products as their incomes rise above poverty level and as they become urbanized. Growth in per capita consumption and production has in fact occurred in regions such as developing Asia, and most particularly China. Per capita consumption of animal proteins and use of cereals as feed in Asia have both grown in the 3 to 5 percent per annum range over the past 20 years. By 2020, according to IFPRI's IMPACT model projections, the share of developing countries in total world meat consumption will expand from 47 percent currently to 63 percent. Of the global total projected increase in meat consumption, 40 percent is from pork, 30 percent is from poultry and 24 percent is from beef. The latter helps mitigate the otherwise much larger decline in real beef prices expected through 2020. Projected annual growth in meat consumption in China of 3.2 percent per annum through 2020--up from 8.3 percent per annum from the early 1980's to the early 1990's, drives these results. A rapidly expanding supply of feedgrains will be essential to achieving the desire production increases for livestock products without undue upwards pressure on grain prices, especially in view of the role of monogastrics and the relative increase in industrial production in developing countries. IMPACT projections under various technical and economic assumptions suggest that there is enough production supply response in world systems to accomplish these...
Keyphrases
enter new millennium mssd discussion paper global food demand contribution livestock meat consumption developed country animal protein poverty level impact projection animal protein product impact model projection real beef price much milk product livestock product grain price per caput consumption industrial production undue upwards pressure desire production increase caput consumption much meat world system relative increase annum range poor people annual growth fish consumption latter help enough production supply response economic assumption global total total world meat consumption
