DMCA
A Sequential Logit Dynamic Travel Demand Model For Hurricane Evacuation By (2004)
| Citations: | 16 - 0 self |
BibTeX
@MISC{Fu04asequential,
author = {Haoqiang Fu and Chester G. Wilmot},
title = {A Sequential Logit Dynamic Travel Demand Model For Hurricane Evacuation By},
year = {2004}
}
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Abstract
TRB 2004 Annual Meeting CD-ROM Paper revised from original submittal. Fu and Wilmot Little attention has been given to estimating dynamic travel demand in transportation planning in the past. However, when factors which influence travel are changing significantly over time – such as with an approaching hurricane- dynamic demand and the resulting variation in traffic flow on the network become important. In the research reported in this paper, the decision to evacuate in the face of an oncoming hurricane is considered as a series of binary choices over time. A sequential binary logit model is developed to model the probability of a household evacuating at each time period before landfall as a function of the household’s socio-economic characteristics, the characteristics of the hurricane, and policy decisions made by authorities as the storm approaches. Data from Southwest Louisiana collected following Hurricane Andrew was used to estimate a model which produces dynamic travel demand estimates of hurricane evacuation. Based on the results, a sequential logit model appears capable of modeling dynamic evacuation demand satisfactorily.
Keyphrases
hurricane evacuation sequential logit model dynamic travel demand estimate socio-economic characteristic binary choice sequential binary logit model southwest louisiana storm approach dynamic travel demand original submittal traffic flow hurricane dynamic demand policy decision transportation planning dynamic evacuation demand annual meeting cd-rom paper household evacuating hurricane andrew time period wilmot little attention network become
