DMCA
United Nations Secretariat. REPLACEMENT MIGRATION: IS IT A SOLUTION FOR RUSSIA? (2000)
BibTeX
@MISC{Only00unitednations,
author = {English Only and Anatoly Vishnevsky and Anatoly Vishnevsky},
title = {United Nations Secretariat. REPLACEMENT MIGRATION: IS IT A SOLUTION FOR RUSSIA?},
year = {2000}
}
Share
 |
 |
 |
 |
||
OpenURL
Abstract
1 summarizes the main assumptions and certain results of the population projection for Russia for the years 2000 to 2050. The purpose of this projection was not to predict, with a maximum possible confidence, how the country’s population size and age composition will actually vary in the nearest 50 years, but rather to examine the paths of such changes in accordance with certain, more or less feasible, scenarios of demographic developments. 1. Three groups of scenarios The 12 proposed scenarios are divided into three groups: • Group I: Scenarios with a zero net migration. This group of scenarios permits to estimate the possibilities of the population increase and potential changes in its age composition entirely as a result of an interaction between fertility and mortality. The Group I scenarios show that, under any somewhat realistic assumptions with regard to these two processes, a natural increase in the population of Russia will be negative during the nearest 50 years, while the population size will steadily decrease. • Group II: Scenarios with a constant population size across the whole 2000 –
Keyphrases
solution russia united nation secretariat replacement migration population size age composition net migration group ii main assumption population increase maximum possible confidence demographic development potential change population projection scenario permit natural increase certain result realistic assumption constant population size
