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Economic Causes of Civil Conflict and their Implications for Policy. Development Research (2000)
| Venue: | II, Evaluating Peace Implementation |
BibTeX
@INPROCEEDINGS{Edt00economiccauses,
author = {At Pm Edt and Paul Collier and World Bank},
title = {Economic Causes of Civil Conflict and their Implications for Policy. Development Research},
booktitle = {II, Evaluating Peace Implementation},
year = {2000},
publisher = {World Bank}
}
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Abstract
This paper presents an economic perspective on the causes of civil war, based on empirical patterns globally over the period 1965-99. During this period, the risk of civil war has been systematically related to a few economic conditions, such as dependence upon primary commodity exports and low national income. Conversely, and astonishingly, objective measures of social grievance, such as inequality, a lack of democracy, and ethnic and religious divisions, have had no systematic effect on risk. I argue that this is because civil wars occur where rebel organizations are financially viable. The Michigan Militia was unable to grow beyond a handful of part-time volunteers, whereas the FARC in Colombia has grown to employ around 12,000 people. The factors which account for this difference between failure and success are to be found not in the causes' which these two rebel organizations claim to espouse, but in their radically different opportunities to raise revenue. The FARC earns around $700m per year from drugs and kidnapping, whereas the Michigan Militia is probably broke. The central importance of the financial viability of the rebel organization as the cause of civil war, is why civil wars are so unlike international wars. Governments can always finance an army out of taxation and so governments can always fight each other. The circumstances in which a rebel organization can finance an army are quite unusual. This is why my analysis is entirely confined to civil war: what I have to say has little or no bearing on inter-government war. Because the results are so counter-intuitive, I start by arguing why social scientists should be distrustful of the loud public discourse on conflict. I then turn to the evidence, describing each of the risk factors in civil war. I then ...
Keyphrases
civil war rebel organization economic cause civil conflict development research michigan militia financial viability systematic effect international war loud public discourse economic perspective economic condition objective measure empirical pattern central importance religious division primary commodity export risk factor part-time volunteer social grievance social scientist low national income inter-government war radically different opportunity
