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## 2005: Seasonal forecasting of Thailand summer monsoon rainfall

Venue: | Intl. J. Climatology |

Citations: | 10 - 0 self |

### Citations

2924 | The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project, - Kalnay, Kanamitsu, et al. - 1996 |

320 |
Statistical methods in water resources
- Helsel, Hirsch
- 1992
(Show Context)
Citation Context ...inghrattna et al. 2004). The correlations are computed for the post-1980 period and shown in Table 1. Correlation values that are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level using a t-test (=-=Helsel and Hirsch 1995-=-) are shown in bold in the table. It can be seen that the SLP-based ENSO index, SOI, shows a strong correlation with monsoon rainfall during the concurrent season and also 1-2 seasons prior. The sprin... |

255 |
Local Regression and Likelihood
- Loader
- 1999
(Show Context)
Citation Context ...or refers to it as LOCFIT – henceforth, we will use the same terminology in this paper. LOCFIT also provides the local standard errors of the estimate σle , and local predictive standard errors σlpe (=-=Loader 1999-=-), corresponding to σe and σpe , respectively, in the case of linear regression described in the previous section. The steps for generating the ensembles are same as that for the linear regression: (i... |

159 |
Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences: An Introduction,
- Wilks
- 2006
(Show Context)
Citation Context ... model. (ii) Likelihood function (LLH) (Rajagopalan et al. 2002). This evaluates the skill of the model in capturing the Probability Density Function (PDF). (iii) Rank Probability Skill Score (RPSS) (=-=Wilks 1995-=-). This evaluates the skill of the model in capturing the categorical probabilities (i.e. the probability distribution function). The likelihood function (LLH) is applied to measure the skills of fore... |

144 |
A dipole mode
- Saji, Goswami, et al.
- 1999
(Show Context)
Citation Context ...2.5 ° grid and available at http://www.cdc.noaa.gov 3. Standard ENSO indices: NINO3, NINO1+2, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) available at http://www.cpc.noaa.gov 4. Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index (=-=Saji et al. 1999-=-). This is an index based on SST anomaly difference between the Eastern and Western tropical Indian Ocean. The index, its impact on the adjoining continental rainfall, interactions with ENSO and telec... |

131 |
On the weakening relationship between the Indian monsoon and ENSO
- Kumar
- 1999
(Show Context)
Citation Context ...onsoon is strongly related with ENSO. In the case of the Indian monsoon this is pre-1980 period. This is consistent with the ENSO related circulation changes during pre and post-1980 periods (Krishna =-=Kumar et al., 1999-=-a; Singhrattna et al., 2004). Land cover changes (Kanae et al., 2001) and decadal changes in ENSOmonsoon relationship (Krishna Kumar et al., 1999b; Torrence and Webster, 1999) could lead to trends in ... |

62 | A nearest neighbor bootstrap for resampling hydrologic time series - Lall, Sharma - 1996 |

32 |
Seasonal forecasting of Indian summer monsoon rainfall: Diagnostics and synthesis of regional and global signals
- Kumar
- 1997
(Show Context)
Citation Context ...droclimate forecasting in the US (e.g., Lui et al. 1998, Piechota et al. 2001, Cordery and McCall 2000; Mccabe and Dettinger, 2002) for the Indian monsoon forecasting (Hastenrath, 1987, 1988; Krishna =-=Kumar et al. 1995-=-). For forecasting a field of dependent variable such as precipitation at several locations from fields of independent variables (e.g., tropical SST, SLP etc.), Canonical Correlation Analysis is typic... |

27 |
The Asian summer monsoon and ENSO
- Ju, Slingo
- 1995
(Show Context)
Citation Context ... monsoon both from observational data (e.g., Walker, 1924; Rasmussen and Carpenter, 1983; Pant and Parthasarathy, 1981; Fein and Stephens, 1987; Webster et al., 1998) and from modeling studies (e.g., =-=Ju and Slingo, 1995-=-; Meehl and Arblaster, 1998). These studies have identified a strong link between El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian summer monsoon. Statistical methods for forecasting the Indian mons... |

24 | E.: Use of medium-range numerical weather prediction model output to produce forecasts of streamflow - Clark, Hay - 2004 |

24 | The Asian-Australian monsoon and El Nino-- Southern Oscillation in the NCAR Climate System Model
- Meehl, Arblaster
- 1998
(Show Context)
Citation Context ...servational data (e.g., Walker, 1924; Rasmussen and Carpenter, 1983; Pant and Parthasarathy, 1981; Fein and Stephens, 1987; Webster et al., 1998) and from modeling studies (e.g., Ju and Slingo, 1995; =-=Meehl and Arblaster, 1998-=-). These studies have identified a strong link between El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian summer monsoon. Statistical methods for forecasting the Indian monsoon rainfall use this ENSO ... |

23 |
Recent advances in nonparametric function estimation: Hydraulic applications
- Lall
- 1995
(Show Context)
Citation Context ...metric alternatives. All of the nonparametric methods perform similarly but LOCFIT is easy to implement, hence we adapted it in this paper. LOCFIT has been used for several hydroclimate applications (=-=Lall, 1995-=-) – for spatial interpolation of precipitation (Rajagopalan and Lall, 1998); salinity modeling (Prairie et al., 2003a; Prairie, 2002); stream flow modeling (Prairie et al., 2003b, 2002); stream flow f... |

19 | 2003), Seasonal to interannual ensemble streamflow forecasts for Ceara, Brazil: Applications of a mutlivariate, semiparametric algorithm - Filho, A, et al. |

19 |
Some aspect of an association between the Southern Oscillation and Indian summer monsoon
- Pant, Parthasarathy
- 1981
(Show Context)
Citation Context ...ponding to near term weather forecast. There is a rich literature of studying the variability of Indian summer monsoon both from observational data (e.g., Walker, 1924; Rasmussen and Carpenter, 1983; =-=Pant and Parthasarathy, 1981-=-; Fein and Stephens, 1987; Webster et al., 1998) and from modeling studies (e.g., Ju and Slingo, 1995; Meehl and Arblaster, 1998). These studies have identified a strong link between El Nino Southern ... |

19 |
Skill of seasonal climate forecasts in Canada using Canonical Correlation Analysis
- Shabbar, Barnston
- 1996
(Show Context)
Citation Context ...g a field of dependent variable such as precipitation at several locations from fields of independent variables (e.g., tropical SST, SLP etc.), Canonical Correlation Analysis is typically used (e.g., =-=Shabbar and Barnston, 1996-=-; Ntale et al., 2003). Below, the linear regression model is briefly described. 4.1 Linear Regression Traditional linear regression involves fitting a linear function between theresponse variable (i.... |

18 | Rainfall variability over South-east Asia – connections with Indian Monsoon and ENSO extremes: new perspectives - Kripalani, Kulkarni - 1997 |

17 | Mooley, “Empirical prediction of the summer monsoon rainfall over - Shukla, A - 1987 |

16 | 2001: Impact of deforestation on regional precipitation over the Indochina Peninsula - Kanae, Oki, et al. |

14 | A.: Development of exceedance probability streamflow forecast - Piechota, Chiew, et al. - 2001 |

14 | Prediction of Indian summer monsoon. Status, problem and prospects - Rajeevan - 2001 |

13 | Primary modes and predictability of year-to-year snow pack variations in the western United States from teleconnections with Pacific Ocean climate - McCabe, Dettinger - 2002 |

12 | 2001), Monsoon rainfall variations and teleconnections over south and east - Kripalani, Kulkarni |

11 |
Methods for assessing the space and time variability of groundwater data
- Owosina
- 1992
(Show Context)
Citation Context ...le on-line2 . There are several nonparametric approaches to estimating the function f locally, such as, kernel-based (Bowman and Azzalini 1997), Splines, local polynomials (Rajagopalan and Lall 1998; =-=Owosina 1992-=-; Loader, 1999). Owosina (1992) performed an extensive comparison of a number of regression methods both parametric and nonparametric on a variety of synthetic and real data sets. He found that the no... |

10 | A model for forecasting drought from teleconnections - Cordery, McCall - 2000 |

10 | Long-term salinity prediction with uncertainty analysis: Application for Colorado River above Glenwood - Prairie - 2002 |

9 | Interannual and interdecadal variability of Thailand Summer Monsoon Season - Singhrattna, Rajagopalan, et al. - 2005 |

5 | The role of ENSO in the south Asian monsoon and pre-monsoon signals over the Tibetan Plateau - Miyakoda, JL, et al. |

4 |
Merging and error analysis of regional hydrometeorologic anomaly forecasts conditioned on climate precursors
- Liu, Valdes, et al.
- 1998
(Show Context)
Citation Context ...for fitting and testing linear regression models, and software is extensively available (e.g., Helsel and Hirsch 1995). Such models have been widely used for hydroclimate forecasting in the US (e.g., =-=Lui et al. 1998-=-, Piechota et al. 2001, Cordery and McCall 2000; Mccabe and Dettinger, 2002) for the Indian monsoon forecasting (Hastenrath, 1987, 1988; Krishna Kumar et al. 1995). For forecasting a field of dependen... |

4 | Optimal categorical climate forecasts through multiple GCM ensemble combination and regularization - Rajagopalan, Lall, et al. |

4 |
Applied Modeling of Hydrologic Time
- Salas
- 1980
(Show Context)
Citation Context ... past values of the response variable itself, then it forms a time series model of Auto Regressive framework. Hydrologists have developed and used such models for stream flow simulation and forecast (=-=Salas 1985-=-, Yevjevich 1972, Bras and Iturbe 1985). The main drawbacks of traditional linear regression models are (i) assumption of Gaussian distribution of data and errors, (ii) assumption of linear relationsh... |

3 | Prediction of Indian Monsoon Rainfall: Further Exploration - Hastenrath - 1988 |

3 | 2000), All India summer monsoon rainfall prediction using an artificial neural network - Sahai, Soman, et al. |

3 |
Assessing the Value of Probabilistic Forecasts from a Scientific Perspective
- Toth
(Show Context)
Citation Context ...ories, so R = 3). The vector d (d1, d2 , ... dR ) represents the observation vector such that dR equals 1 if the observation fell in category ‘R’ or 0 otherwise. The RPSS is then calculated as (e.g., =-=Toth, 2002-=-; Wilks, 1995) RPSS RPS( forecast ) = 1− [7] RPS( climatolog y) RPSS scores vary from +1 to -∝ (i.e. perfect skill to bad skill). Scores above 0 indicate improvement over climatological forecast.For ... |

2 | A nearest neighbor bootstrap technique for generating regional climate scenarios for integrated assessments. Water Resources Research 39(7):1199 - Yates, Gangopadhyay, et al. - 2003 |

1 | 2004: Local Polynomial Technique for Flood Frequency Analysis, (in review - Apipattanavis, Rajagopalan, et al. - 1997 |

1 |
Monsoons, Wiley-Interscience Publication, 632ppp
- Fein, Stephens
- 1987
(Show Context)
Citation Context ...orecast. There is a rich literature of studying the variability of Indian summer monsoon both from observational data (e.g., Walker, 1924; Rasmussen and Carpenter, 1983; Pant and Parthasarathy, 1981; =-=Fein and Stephens, 1987-=-; Webster et al., 1998) and from modeling studies (e.g., Ju and Slingo, 1995; Meehl and Arblaster, 1998). These studies have identified a strong link between El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and th... |

1 |
On the prediction of Indian summer rainfall anomalies
- Hastenrath
- 1987
(Show Context)
Citation Context ...els have been widely used for hydroclimate forecasting in the US (e.g., Lui et al. 1998, Piechota et al. 2001, Cordery and McCall 2000; Mccabe and Dettinger, 2002) for the Indian monsoon forecasting (=-=Hastenrath, 1987-=-, 1988; Krishna Kumar et al. 1995). For forecasting a field of dependent variable such as precipitation at several locations from fields of independent variables (e.g., tropical SST, SLP etc.), Canoni... |

1 | 2003: Prediction of East African seasonal rainfall using canonical correlation analysis - Ntale, Gan, et al. |

1 |
Locally Weighted Polynimial Estimation of Spatial Precipitation
- Rajagopalan, Lall
- 1998
(Show Context)
Citation Context ...ed by Loader and is available on-line2 . There are several nonparametric approaches to estimating the function f locally, such as, kernel-based (Bowman and Azzalini 1997), Splines, local polynomials (=-=Rajagopalan and Lall 1998-=-; Owosina 1992; Loader, 1999). Owosina (1992) performed an extensive comparison of a number of regression methods both parametric and nonparametric on a variety of synthetic and real data sets. He fou... |

1 | Monsoons: Processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction - Yasnari - 1998 |