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By Force of Habit: A ConsumptionBased Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior
, 1999
"... We present a consumptionbased model that explains a wide variety of dynamic asset pricing phenomena, including the procyclical variation of stock prices, the longhorizon predictability of excess stock returns, and the countercyclical variation of stock market volatility. The model captures much of ..."
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Cited by 1427 (70 self)
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We present a consumptionbased model that explains a wide variety of dynamic asset pricing phenomena, including the procyclical variation of stock prices, the longhorizon predictability of excess stock returns, and the countercyclical variation of stock market volatility. The model captures much of the history of stock prices from consumption data. It explains the short and longrun equity premium puzzles despite a low and constant riskfree rate. The results are essentially the same whether we model stocks as a claim to the consumption stream or as a claim to volatile dividends poorly correlated with consumption. The model is driven by an independently and identically distributed consumption growth process and adds a slowmoving external habit to the standard power utility function. These features generate slow countercyclical variation in risk premia. The model posits a fundamentally novel description of risk premia: Investors fear stocks primarily because they do poorly in recessions unrelated to the risks of longrun average consumption growth.
Asset prices under habit formation and catching up with the Joneses
 AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW PAPERS AND PROCEEDINGS 80
, 1990
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Risks for the long run: A potential resolution of asset pricing puzzles
 JOURNAL OF FINANCE
, 1994
"... We model consumption and dividend growth rates as containing (i) a small longrun predictable component and (ii) fluctuating economic uncertainty (consumption volatility). These dynamics, for which we provide empirical support, in conjunction with Epstein and Zin’s (1989) preferences, can explain ke ..."
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Cited by 723 (55 self)
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We model consumption and dividend growth rates as containing (i) a small longrun predictable component and (ii) fluctuating economic uncertainty (consumption volatility). These dynamics, for which we provide empirical support, in conjunction with Epstein and Zin’s (1989) preferences, can explain key asset markets phenomena. In our economy, financial markets dislike economic uncertainty and better longrun growth prospects raise equity prices. The model can justify the equity premium, the riskfree rate, and the volatility of the market return, riskfree rate, and the pricedividend ratio. As in the data, dividend yields predict returns and the volatility of returns is timevarying.
A Simple Model of Capital Market Equilibrium with Incomplete Information
 JOURNAL OF FINANCE
, 1987
"... The sphere of modern financial economics encompases finance, micro investment theory and much of the economics of uncertainty. As is evident from its influence on other branches of economics including public finance, industrial organization and monetary theory, the boundaries of this sphere are both ..."
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Cited by 722 (2 self)
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The sphere of modern financial economics encompases finance, micro investment theory and much of the economics of uncertainty. As is evident from its influence on other branches of economics including public finance, industrial organization and monetary theory, the boundaries of this sphere are both permeable and flexible. The complex interactions of time and uncertainty guarantee intellectual challenge and intrinsic excitement to the study of financial economics. Indeed, the mathematics of the subject contain some of the most interesting applications of probability and optimization theory. But for all its mathematical refinement, the research has nevertheless had a direct and significant influence on practice. It was not always thus. Thirty years ago, finance theory was little more than a collection of anecdotes, rules of thumb, and manipulations of accounting data with an almost exclusive focus on corporate financial management. There is no need in this meeting of the guild to recount the subsequent evolution from this conceptual potpourri to a rigorous economic
Preference Parameters And Behavioral Heterogeneity: An Experimental Approach In The Health And Retirement Study
, 1997
"... This paper reports measures of preference parameters relating to risk tolerance, time preference, and intertemporal substitution. These measures are based on survey responses to hypothetical situations constructed using an economic theorist's concept of the underlying parameters. The individual ..."
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Cited by 525 (13 self)
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This paper reports measures of preference parameters relating to risk tolerance, time preference, and intertemporal substitution. These measures are based on survey responses to hypothetical situations constructed using an economic theorist's concept of the underlying parameters. The individual measures of preference parameters display heterogeneity. Estimated risk tolerance and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution are essentially uncorrelated across individuals. Measured risk tolerance is positively related to risky behaviors, including smoking, drinking, failing to have insurance, and holding stocks rather than Treasury bills. These relationships are both statistically and quantitatively significant, although measured risk tolerance explains only a small fraction of the variation of the studied behaviors.
Finite state Markovchain approximations to univariate and vector autoregressions
 Economics Letters
, 1986
"... The paper develops a procedure for finding a discretevalued Markov chain whose sample paths approximate well those of a vector autoregression. The procedure has applications in those areas of economics, finance, and econometrics where approximate solutions to integral equations are required. 1. ..."
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Cited by 469 (0 self)
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The paper develops a procedure for finding a discretevalued Markov chain whose sample paths approximate well those of a vector autoregression. The procedure has applications in those areas of economics, finance, and econometrics where approximate solutions to integral equations are required. 1.
Trying to Explain Home Bias in Equities and Consumption
 Journal of Economic Literature
, 1999
"... Domestic investors hold a substantially larger proportion of their wealth portfolios in domestic assets than standard portfolio theory would suggest, a phenomenon called "equity home bias. " In the absence of this bias, investors would optimally diversify domestic output risk using foreign ..."
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Cited by 452 (6 self)
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Domestic investors hold a substantially larger proportion of their wealth portfolios in domestic assets than standard portfolio theory would suggest, a phenomenon called "equity home bias. " In the absence of this bias, investors would optimally diversify domestic output risk using foreign equities. Therefore, consumption growth rates would tend to comove across countries even when output growth rates do not. Empirically, however, consumption growth rates tend to have a lower correlation across countries than do output growth rates, a phenomenon I call "consumption home bias. " In this paper, I discuss these two biases and their potential relationship. I appreciate useful suggestions and comments from three anonymous referees and John Pencavel, the editor. I am also grateful to Michael Adler, Urban Jermann, and Amir Yaron for helpful discussions. Any errors or omissions are my responsibility alone. 1 Do individuals hold the optimal portfolio? Do they do a good job of hedging risks? The answer to these questions are clearly important for understanding the economy. If individuals indeed hedge risk optimally, then resources are allocated to their most efficient uses. If not, then many other questions arise. Why not? What is the explanation for these inefficiencies? And what
The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence
 JOURNAL OF EMPIRICAL FINANCE
, 1996
"... Forward exchange rate unbiasedness is rejected in tests from the current floating exchange rate era. This paper surveys advances in this area since the publication of Hodrick's (1987) survey. It documents that the change in the future exchange rate is generally negatively related to the forward ..."
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Cited by 394 (11 self)
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Forward exchange rate unbiasedness is rejected in tests from the current floating exchange rate era. This paper surveys advances in this area since the publication of Hodrick's (1987) survey. It documents that the change in the future exchange rate is generally negatively related to the forward discount. Properties of the expected forward forecast error are reviewed. Issues such as the relation of uncovered interest parity to real interest parity, and the implications of uncovered interest parity for cointegration of various quantities are discussed. The modeling and testing for risk premiums is surveyed. Included in this area are tests of the consumption CAPM, tests of the latent variable model, and portfoliobalance models of risk premiums. General equilibrium models of the risk premium are examined and their empirical implications explored. The survey does not cover the important areas of learning and peso problems, tests of rational expectations based on survey data, or the models of irrational expectations and speculative bubbles.