Southern Louisiana is characterized by low-lying topography and an extensive network of sounds, bays, marshes, lakes, rivers, and inlets that permit widespread inundation during hurricanes. A basin- to channel-scale implementation of the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) unstructured grid hydrodynamic model has been developed that accurately simulates hurricane storm surge, tides, and river flow in this complex region. This is accomplished by defining a domain and computational resolution appropriate for the relevant processes, specifying realistic boundary conditions, and implementing accurate, robust, and highly parallel unstructured grid numerical algorithms. The model domain incorporates the western North Atlantic, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean Sea so that interactions between basins and the shelf are explicitly modeled and the boundary condition specification of tidal and hurricane processes can be readily defined at the deep water open boundary. The unstructured grid enables highly refined resolution of the complex overland region for modeling localized scales of flow while minimizing computational cost. Kinematic data assimilative or validated dynamic-modeled wind fields provide the hurricane wind and pressure field forcing. Wind fields are modified to incorporate directional boundary layer changes due to overland increases in surface roughness, reduction

Exogenous shocks directly impacting a local labor market will have more of an effect at the local level than at the national level. This study implements a Generalized Difference-in-Difference (GDD) approach to identify the effects of shocks resulting from hurricanes, as well as the neighboring effects reaching nearby counties. Using QCEW data on earnings and employment, we show that when hit directly by a hurricane, the earnings of an average worker in Florida will increase as much as four percent, whereas the effects of a hurricane occurring in a neighboring county move earnings per worker in the opposite direction by nearly two percent. These changes in the growth rates of earnings are temporary effects that return to steady state growth levels roughly two years after the shock. The effects of hurricanes on employment appear to be insignificant because of offsets between industries. Further, we explore these inter-industry effects on earnings in each industry over the course of the hurricane reconstruction period. Although we focus on hurricanes in Florida, this GDD technique is applicable to a wider range of exogenous shocks. All data contained in this paper will be made available upon request. The authors would like to thank seminar participants at Binghamton University and the Third Migrant IZA Conference, Washington, D.C. March 2007 for their comments. Draft Date: March 2007 1

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The OECD Futures Project on Risk Management Policies aims to assist OECD countries in identifying the challenges of managing risks in the 21st century, and contributing to their reflection on how best to address those challenges. Its focus is placed on the consistency of risk management policies and on their ability to deal with the challenges, present and future, created by systemic risks. The Project is designed in two phases. In Phase 1, the countries participating in the project propose specific themes as case studies of their risk management policies. For each proposal, the OECD Secretariat prepares an overview of the issue covering both recent international developments of interest and the national policy context. Where relevant, the Secretariat elaborates a tool for self-assessment and review, consisting of one or several questionnaires following the methodological framework of the project. This prepares the ground for Phase 2 in which an in-depth review of the risk management issues will be conducted by a team of experts for those countries that wish it. Self-assessments will be used as the basis of these reviews. At the end of phase 2, a cross-country report will bring together the lessons learned from the project, and identify opportunities for sharing best practices and improving risk management. In the framework of the Project, the Danish Ministry of Defence asked the OECD Secretariat in October 2004 to prepare a study on risk and vulnerability identification methods. The aim of the study is to contribute to ongoing reflections regarding the need to assess more systematically and effectively the nation’s vulnerabilities and exposure to hazards. Its focus is therefore on methodological and implementation issues linked to the creation and execution of nation-wide risk and vulnerability assessments, rather than existing policies.

Prepared in cooperation with the

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I want to dedicate this thesis to my parents for their care and endless love for me. I am also dedicating this thesis to my children, Xenia and Julia, who make me feel strong and who help me through the tough times.

This publication consists of a narrative that describes some of the principal climatic features and a number of climatological summaries for stations in various geographic regions of the State. The detailed information presented should be sufficient for general use; however, some users

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