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...top of the atmosphere by a factor of 4 (i.e., due to averaging over the globe) and by an additional factor of 30% due to reflections associated with cloud and surface albedos [Wigley and Raper, 1990; =-=Reid, 1991-=-]. A major question impacting this study is whether changing solar irradiance influences global-average upper ocean temperature directly through solar insolation or whether it influences it indirectly...

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...1994). However, recent modeling studies indicate that a small decrease in total solar irradiance (0.25%) could produce a global temperature decrease of the magnitude suggested for the Little Ice Age (=-=Reid, 1991-=-, 1993; Lean and Rind, 1994). Far more variable than changes in total solar irradiance are changes in amount of energy emitted as ultraviolet, extreme ultraviolet, and X-rays, and in the continuous ou...

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...nterpretation and calibration methods of proxy records. Previous studies have yielded wideranging estimates for the TSI reduction in the Maunder Minimum relative to the present day, that is, 0.1%–1% (=-=Reid 1991-=-; Lean et al. 1992; Baliunas and Jastrow 1993; Hoyt and Schatten 1993; Nesme-Ribes et al. 1993; Zhang et al. 1994; Reid 1997; Solanki and Fligge 1998; Cliver et al. 1998). In addition, it has been sug...

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...iver of climate is by trying to fit the observations (e.g. reproducing the air temperature variations of the last 150 years [Jones et al., 1986; Hansen and Lebedeff, 1988] or sea surface temperature [=-=Reid, 1991-=-]) with, and without the driver in question operating. For the case of the Sun, we can assume that it does not change, and adjust all the other parameters to reproduce the temperature record. Subseque...

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... irradiance between the Maunder Minimum and the present may not be larger. At the other extreme among opinions is an estimate that the Maunder Minimum decrease in solar irradiance was as large as 1% (=-=Reid, 1991-=-; see also discussion in Bard et al., 2000). The corresponding estimate by Lean et al. (1995), which is 0.24%, is sometimes used as a standard (Tett et al., 2006; Stendel et al., 2006), but recent mod...

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...mistakable variations in oceanic temperatures. White et al. (1997) found that sea surface temperatures in the Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic Oceans, whether taken separately or combined, follow the reconstructed irradiance variation derived from satellite observations and the sunspot record, but the range of temperature variation is only 0.08 K, which is consistent with the expected response of the ocean to changes of 0.15% in total irradiance. Taken over a longer time span, the oceanic temperature shows larger interdecadal variations of 0.14 K, which also follow the pattern of solar activity (Reid 1991; White et al. 1997). Recent measurements of 18O abundances in foraminifera from shallow water sediments reveal a clear 11-yr periodicity, in phase with the Schwabe cycle, which persisted for 700 yr (Cini Castagnoli et al. 1999). This record shows not only that temperatures rise at sunspot maxima, but also that there are cooler episodes associated with grand minima. Moreover, these fluctuations are larger in the Mediterranean than in deep oceans. Galactic cosmic rays lead to the production of isotopes such as 14C and 10Be, which are stored in trees and ice, respectively. Since cosmic rays are ...

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...spheric forcing or oscillations between tropical and extra-tropical regions of the ocean (eg. Latif and Barnett, 1994, Gu and Philander, 1997, Minobe, 1999), and even band-specific solar variability (=-=Reid, 1991-=-; 2000; White et al., 1997; Franks, 2001). Whilst the causal factors for multi-decadal variability remain to be identified, the evidence is growing that regional climate cannot be assumed to be stocha...