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...ño events increase tropical cyclone activity (e.g., the central North Pacific near Hawaii, the South Pacific, and the northwest Pacific between 160°E and the date line) (Chan 1985; Chu and Wang 1997; =-=Lander 1994-=-). Tropical cyclone activity decreases in other basins (e.g., the Atlantic, the northwest Pacific west of 160°E, and the Australian region) (Nicholls 1979; Revelle and Goulter 1986; Gray 1984a). La Ni...

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...h are also involved, all of which may be varying with ENSO in an inter-related way. The genesis positions of tropical cyclones are closely related to the interannual variations in the monsoon trough (=-=Lander 1994-=-; McBride 1995). The variation in the easternmost position of the monsoon trough in the late season is clearly seen in Fig. 3 (dashed line, left panels). In El Niño years, the eastern end of the mons...

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...ous basins to regional, local parameters as well as global, remote factors. Gray (1984) related Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency to El Nino and the quasi-biennial oscillation of stratospheric wind. Gray (1990), Landsea and Gray (1992), and Landsea et al. (1992) investigated the relationship between Western Sahel monsoon rainfall and the occurrence of intense hurricanes in the Atlantic. Shapiro (1987), and Shapiro and Goldenberg (1998), related TC formation in the Atlantic to regional Atlantic tropical circulation features and sea surface temperatures (SST). Studies by Chan (1985, 2000), Lander (1994), and Chen et al. (1998) attempted to find a relationship between TC activity in the Western North Pacific and the El Nino and La Nina phenomena. They noted that the TC genesis region shifts eastward across 160E in the Western North Pacific in El Nino years while the genesis region is mostly confined to the west of 160E during La Nina. Basher and Zheng (1995) performed a similar study investigating the spatial patterns of TCs in the southwest Pacific in relation to the El Nino— Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and regional SSTs. In the eastern North Pacific, Irwin and Davis (1999) noted a sta...

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...Ropelewski and Halpert 1987, 1989) and surface temperature (Halpert and Ropelewski 1992) in addition to altering both the frequency and location of tropical cyclones (Gray et al. 1994; Nicholls 1992; =-=Lander 1994-=-). These teleconnected effects are due to ENSO-forced global circulation changes (Horel and Wallace 1981; Arkin 1982). Thus, successful seasonal forecasts of ENSO variability are crucial for useful pr...

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...fic (WNP) would be modulated by various Corresponding author address: Chang-Hoi Ho, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, San 56-1 Shillim-Dong, Gwanak-Gu, Seoul 151-742, South Korea. E-mail: hoch@cpl.snu.ac.kr 5344 J O U R N A L O F C L I M A T E VOLUME 18 © 2005 American Meteorological Society atmospheric and oceanic phenomena that have time scales from intraseasonal to interdecadal: tropical intraseasonal oscillation (Hartmann et al. 1992; Liebmann et al. 1994), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO; Chan 1985, 2000; Chen et al. 1998; Chia and Ropelewski 2002; Lander 1994; Wang and Chan 2002), quasi-biennial oscillation (Chan 1995), and interdecadal variation of large-scale atmospheric circulations (Matsuura et al. 2003; Ho et al. 2004). Among these, ENSO is generally regarded as the main phenomenon that influences the interannual variation of TC activity. The consensus is that the active genesis region of TC moves both eastward and equatorward, the life span increases, and TCs recurve more often and tend to recurve farther eastward during the warm phase of ENSO. In addition, during the El Niño years, many TCs move through the Pacific Ocean to the east of Japa...

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... intensity [Knutson et al., 1998; Knutson and Tuleya, 2004] and frequency of occurrence [Bengtsson et al., 1996; Henderson-Sellers et al., 1998], and shift prevailing tracks [Walsh and Katzfey, 2000; Wu and Wang, 2004]. However, little observed evidence has been shown to support these projected changes [Knutson and Tuleya, 2004; Chan and Liu, 2004]. [3] TC tracks are essentially controlled by large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Previous studies have demonstrated that the variability of seasonal typhoon activity is related to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) [Chan, 1985, 2000; Lander, 1994; Chen et al., 1998; Wang and Chan, 2002], the stratospheric quasibiennial oscillation [Chan, 1995] and interdecadal variations [Chan and Shi, 1996; Ho et al., 2004]. The tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have changed abruptly around 1976 [Nitta and Yamada, 1989; Kumar et al., 2004], and the atmospheric circulation over the Pacific and the properties of El Nino have also shown concurrent changes in response to the interdecadal SST change [e.g., Trenberth and Hurrell, 1994; Wang, 1995]. Can these changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation lead to changes in the prevailing typhoon tra...

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...strong (Camargo and Zebiak, 2002b). According to ENSO phase, the average genesis location of model cyclones exhibits a northwest-southeast shift (Camargo and Zebiak, 2002b), similar to that observed (=-=Lander, 1994-=-). Compared to observed cyclones, fewer model cyclones curve around the continent as they move poleward and reach high latitudes (Camargo and Zebiak, 2002a). Time-dependent composites of Western North...

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...gest TCs in individual years. These, together with the large and dense population inEast and Southeast Asia, have motivated numerous efforts to understand the variability of WNP TCs (e.g., Chan 1985; =-=Lander 1994-=-; Wang and Chan 2002; Chia and Ropelewski 2002; Elsner and Liu 2003; Wu et al. 2004; Camargo and Sobel 2005; Camargo et al. 2007a,b; Liu and Chan 2008; Zhan et al. 2011a; H.-M. Kim et al. 2011; Huang ...