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Probability: Theory and examples
 CAMBRIDGE U PRESS
, 2011
"... Some times the lights are shining on me. Other times I can barely see. Lately it occurs to me what a long strange trip its been. Grateful Dead In 1989 when the first edition of the book was completed, my sons David and Greg were 3 and 1, and the cover picture showed the Dow Jones at 2650. The last t ..."
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Cited by 1323 (16 self)
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Some times the lights are shining on me. Other times I can barely see. Lately it occurs to me what a long strange trip its been. Grateful Dead In 1989 when the first edition of the book was completed, my sons David and Greg were 3 and 1, and the cover picture showed the Dow Jones at 2650. The last twenty years have brought many changes but the song remains the same. The title of the book indicates that as we develop the theory, we will focus our attention on examples. Hoping that the book would be a useful reference for people who apply probability in their work, we have tried to emphasize the results that are important for applications, and illustrated their use with roughly 200 examples. Probability is not a spectator sport, so the book contains almost 450 exercises to challenge the reader and to deepen their understanding. The fourth edition has two major changes (in addition to a new publisher): (i) The book has been converted from TeX to LaTeX. The systematic use of labels should eventually eliminate problems with references to other points in the text. In
The weighted majority algorithm
, 1992
"... We study the construction of prediction algorithms in a situation in which a learner faces a sequence of trials, with a prediction to be made in each, and the goal of the learner is to make few mistakes. We are interested in the case that the learner has reason to believe that one of some pool of kn ..."
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Cited by 855 (42 self)
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We study the construction of prediction algorithms in a situation in which a learner faces a sequence of trials, with a prediction to be made in each, and the goal of the learner is to make few mistakes. We are interested in the case that the learner has reason to believe that one of some pool of known algorithms will perform well, but the learner does not know which one. A simple and effective method, based on weighted voting, is introduced for constructing a compound algorithm in such a circumstance. We call this method the Weighted Majority Algorithm. We show that this algorithm is robust in the presence of errors in the data. We discuss various versions of the Weighted Majority Algorithm and prove mistake bounds for them that are closely related to the mistake bounds of the best algorithms of the pool. For example, given a sequence of trials, if there is an algorithm in the pool A that makes at most m mistakes then the Weighted Majority Algorithm will
Using Daily Stock Returns: The Case of Event Studies
 Journal of Financial Economics
, 1985
"... This paper examines properties of daily stock returns and how the particular characteristics of these data affect event study methodologies. Daily data generally present few difficulties for event studies. Standard procedures are typically wellspecified even when special daily data characteristics ..."
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Cited by 773 (2 self)
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This paper examines properties of daily stock returns and how the particular characteristics of these data affect event study methodologies. Daily data generally present few difficulties for event studies. Standard procedures are typically wellspecified even when special daily data characteristics are ignored. However, recognition of autocorrelation in daily excess returns and changes in their variance conditional on an event can sometimes be advantageous. In addition, tests ignoring crosssectional dependence can be wellspecified and have higher power than tests which account for potential dependence. 1.
Capacity of Fading Channels with Channel Side Information
, 1997
"... We obtain the Shannon capacity of a fading channel with channel side information at the transmitter and receiver, and at the receiver alone. The optimal power adaptation in the former case is "waterpouring" in time, analogous to waterpouring in frequency for timeinvariant frequencysele ..."
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Cited by 582 (20 self)
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We obtain the Shannon capacity of a fading channel with channel side information at the transmitter and receiver, and at the receiver alone. The optimal power adaptation in the former case is "waterpouring" in time, analogous to waterpouring in frequency for timeinvariant frequencyselective fading channels. Inverting the channel results in a large capacity penalty in severe fading.
Design of capacityapproaching irregular lowdensity paritycheck codes
 IEEE TRANS. INFORM. THEORY
, 2001
"... We design lowdensity paritycheck (LDPC) codes that perform at rates extremely close to the Shannon capacity. The codes are built from highly irregular bipartite graphs with carefully chosen degree patterns on both sides. Our theoretical analysis of the codes is based on [1]. Assuming that the unde ..."
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Cited by 580 (6 self)
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We design lowdensity paritycheck (LDPC) codes that perform at rates extremely close to the Shannon capacity. The codes are built from highly irregular bipartite graphs with carefully chosen degree patterns on both sides. Our theoretical analysis of the codes is based on [1]. Assuming that the underlying communication channel is symmetric, we prove that the probability densities at the message nodes of the graph possess a certain symmetry. Using this symmetry property we then show that, under the assumption of no cycles, the message densities always converge as the number of iterations tends to infinity. Furthermore, we prove a stability condition which implies an upper bound on the fraction of errors that a beliefpropagation decoder can correct when applied to a code induced from a bipartite graph with a given degree distribution. Our codes are found by optimizing the degree structure of the underlying graphs. We develop several strategies to perform this optimization. We also present some simulation results for the codes found which show that the performance of the codes is very close to the asymptotic theoretical bounds.
Modeling and performance analysis of bittorrentlike peertopeer networks
 In SIGCOMM
, 2004
"... In this paper, we develop simple models to study the performance of BitTorrent, a second generation peertopeer (P2P) application. We first present a simple fluid model and study the scalability, performance and efficiency of such a filesharing mechanism. We then consider the builtin incentive mec ..."
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Cited by 567 (3 self)
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In this paper, we develop simple models to study the performance of BitTorrent, a second generation peertopeer (P2P) application. We first present a simple fluid model and study the scalability, performance and efficiency of such a filesharing mechanism. We then consider the builtin incentive mechanism of BitTorrent and study its effect on network performance. We also provide numerical results based on both simulations and real traces obtained from the Internet. 1
MIXED MNL MODELS FOR DISCRETE RESPONSE
 JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS J. APPL. ECON. 15: 447470 (2000)
, 2000
"... This paper considers mixed, or random coefficients, multinomial logit (MMNL) models for discrete response, and establishes the following results. Under mild regularity conditions, any discrete choice model derived from random utility maximization has choice probabilities that can be approximated as ..."
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Cited by 469 (15 self)
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This paper considers mixed, or random coefficients, multinomial logit (MMNL) models for discrete response, and establishes the following results. Under mild regularity conditions, any discrete choice model derived from random utility maximization has choice probabilities that can be approximated as closely as one pleases by a MMNL model. Practical estimation of a parametric mixing family can be carried out by Maximum Simulated Likelihood Estimation or Method of Simulated Moments, and easily computed instruments are provided that make the latter procedure fairly efficient. The adequacy of a mixing specification can be tested simply as an omitted variable test with appropriately defined artificial variables. An application to a problem of demand for alternative vehicles shows that MMNL provides a flexible and computationally practical approach to discrete response analysis.
Testing for Common Trends
 Journal of the American Statistical Association
, 1988
"... Cointegrated multiple time series share at least one common trend. Two tests are developed for the number of common stochastic trends (i.e., for the order of cointegration) in a multiple time series with and without drift. Both tests involve the roots of the ordinary least squares coefficient matrix ..."
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Cited by 453 (7 self)
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Cointegrated multiple time series share at least one common trend. Two tests are developed for the number of common stochastic trends (i.e., for the order of cointegration) in a multiple time series with and without drift. Both tests involve the roots of the ordinary least squares coefficient matrix obtained by regressing the series onto its first lag. Critical values for the tests are tabulated, and their power is examined in a Monte Carlo study. Economic time series are often modeled as having a unit root in their autoregressive representation, or (equivalently) as containing a stochastic trend. But both casual observation and economic theory suggesthat many series might contain the same stochastic trendso that they are cointegrated. If each of n series is integrated of order 1 but can be jointly characterized by k < n stochastic trends, then the vecto representation of these series has k unit roots and n k distinct stationary linear combinations. Our proposed tests can be viewed alternatively as tests of the number of common trends, linearly independent cointegrating vectors, or autoregressive unit roots of the vector process. Both of the proposed tests are asymptotically similar. The firstest (qf) is developed under the assumption that certain components of the process have a finiteorder vector autoregressive (VAR) representation, and the nuisance parameters are handled by estimating this VAR. The second test (q,) entails computing the eigenvalues of a corrected sample firstorder autocorrelation matrix, where the correction is essentially a sum of the autocovariance matrices. Previous researchers have found that U.S. postwar interest rates, taken individually, appear to be integrated of order 1. In addition, the theory of the term structure implies that yields on similar assets of different maturities will be cointegrated. Applying these tests to postwar U.S. data on the federal funds rate and the three and twelvemonth treasury bill rates providesupport for this prediction: The three interest rates appear to be cointegrated.