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126
Stochastic volatility: likelihood inference and comparison with ARCH models
- Review of Economic Studies
, 1998
"... In this paper, Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling methods are exploited to provide a unified, practical likelihood-based framework for the analysis of stochastic volatility models. A highly effective method is developed that samples all the unobserved volatilities at once using an approximating offse ..."
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Cited by 592 (40 self)
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In this paper, Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling methods are exploited to provide a unified, practical likelihood-based framework for the analysis of stochastic volatility models. A highly effective method is developed that samples all the unobserved volatilities at once using an approximating offset mixture model, followed by an importance reweighting procedure. This approach is compared with several alternative methods using real data. The paper also develops simulation-based methods for filtering, likelihood evaluation and model failure diagnostics. The issue of model choice using non-nested likelihood ratios and Bayes factors is also investigated. These methods are used to compare the fit of stochastic volatility and GARCH models. All the procedures are illustrated in detail. 1.
An empirical investigation of continuous-time equity return models
- Journal of Finance
, 2002
"... This paper extends the class of stochastic volatility diffusions for asset returns to encompass Poisson jumps of time-varying intensity. We find that any reasonably descriptive continuous-time model for equity-index returns must allow for discrete jumps as well as stochastic volatility with a pronou ..."
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Cited by 240 (12 self)
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This paper extends the class of stochastic volatility diffusions for asset returns to encompass Poisson jumps of time-varying intensity. We find that any reasonably descriptive continuous-time model for equity-index returns must allow for discrete jumps as well as stochastic volatility with a pronounced negative relationship between return and volatility innovations. We also find that the dominant empirical characteristics of the return process appear to be priced by the option market. Our analysis indicates a general correspondence between the evidence extracted from daily equity-index returns and the stylized features of the corresponding options market prices. MUCH ASSET AND DERIVATIVE PRICING THEORY is based on diffusion models for primary securities. However, prescriptions for practical applications derived from these models typically produce disappointing results. A possible explanation could be that analytic formulas for pricing and hedging are available for only a limited set of continuous-time representations for asset returns
Range-based estimation of stochastic volatility models
, 2002
"... We propose using the price range in the estimation of stochastic volatility models. We show theoretically, numerically, and empirically that range-based volatility proxies are not only highly efficient, but also approximately Gaussian and robust to microstructure noise. Hence range-based Gaussian qu ..."
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Cited by 223 (19 self)
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We propose using the price range in the estimation of stochastic volatility models. We show theoretically, numerically, and empirically that range-based volatility proxies are not only highly efficient, but also approximately Gaussian and robust to microstructure noise. Hence range-based Gaussian quasi-maximum likelihood estimation produces highly efficient estimates of stochastic volatility models and extractions of latent volatility. We use our method to examine the dynamics of daily exchange rate volatility and find the evidence points strongly toward two-factor models with one highly persistent factor and one quickly mean-reverting factor. VOLATILITY IS A CENTRAL CONCEPT in finance, whether in asset pricing, portfolio choice, or risk management. Not long ago, theoretical models routinely assumed constant volatility ~e.g., Merton ~1969!, Black and Scholes ~1973!!. Today, however, we widely acknowledge that volatility is both time varying and predictable ~e.g., Andersen and Bollerslev ~1997!!, andstochastic volatility models are commonplace. Discrete- and continuous-time stochastic volatility models are extensively used in theoretical finance, empirical finance, and financial econometrics, both in academe and industry ~e.g., Hull and
Dynamic consumption and portfolio choice with stochastic volatility in incomplete markets
, 2003
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A Study towards a Unified Approach to the Joint Estimation of Objective and Risk Neutral Measures for the Purpose of Options Valuation
, 1999
"... The purpose of this paper is to bridge two strands of the literature, one pertaining to the objectiveorphysical measure used to model the underlying asset and the other pertaining to the risk-neutral measure used to price derivatives. We propose a generic procedure using simultaneously the fundame ..."
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Cited by 133 (4 self)
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The purpose of this paper is to bridge two strands of the literature, one pertaining to the objectiveorphysical measure used to model the underlying asset and the other pertaining to the risk-neutral measure used to price derivatives. We propose a generic procedure using simultaneously the fundamental price S t and a set of option contracts ### I it # i=1;m # where m # 1 and # I it is the Black-Scholes implied volatility.We use Heston's #1993# model as an example and appraise univariate and multivariate estimation of the model in terms of pricing and hedging performance. Our results, based on the S&P 500 index contract, show that the univariate approach only involving options by and large dominates. Aby-product of this #nding is that we uncover a remarkably simple volatility extraction #lter based on a polynomial lag structure of implied volatilities. The bivariate approachinvolving both the fundamental and an option appears useful when the information from the cash market ...
Term Structure of Interest Rates with Regime Shifts
- Journal of Finance
, 2002
"... We develop a term structure model where the short interest rate and the market price of risks are subject to discrete regime shifts. Empirical evidence from efficient method of moments estimation provides considerable support for the regime shifts model. Standard models, which include affine specifi ..."
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Cited by 129 (3 self)
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We develop a term structure model where the short interest rate and the market price of risks are subject to discrete regime shifts. Empirical evidence from efficient method of moments estimation provides considerable support for the regime shifts model. Standard models, which include affine specifications with up to three factors, are sharply rejected in the data. Our diagnostics show that only the regime shifts model can account for the well-documented violations of the expectations hypothesis, the observed conditional volatility, and the conditional correlation across yields. We find that regimes are intimately related to business cycles. MANY PAPERS DOCUMENT THAT THE UNIVARIATE short interest rate process can be reasonably well modeled in the time series as a regime switching process ~see Hamilton ~1988!, Garcia and Perron ~1996!!. In addition to this statistical evidence, there are economic reasons as well to believe that regime shifts are important to understanding the behavior of the entire yield curve. For example, business cycle expansion and contraction “regimes ” potentially
Estimation of stochastic volatility models via Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood
, 1998
"... This paper discusses the Monte Carlo maximum likelihood method of estimating stochastic volatility (SV) models. The basic SV model can be expressed as a linear state space model with log chi-square disturbances. The likelihood function can be approximated arbitrarily accurately by decomposing it int ..."
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Cited by 114 (10 self)
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This paper discusses the Monte Carlo maximum likelihood method of estimating stochastic volatility (SV) models. The basic SV model can be expressed as a linear state space model with log chi-square disturbances. The likelihood function can be approximated arbitrarily accurately by decomposing it into a Gaussian part, constructed by the Kalman filter, and a remainder function, whose expectation is evaluated by simulation. No modifications of this estimation procedure are required when the basic SV model is extended in a number of directions likely to arise in applied empirical research. This compares favorably with alternative approaches. The finite sample performance of the new estimator is shown to be comparable to the Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC) method.
Using Daily Range Data to Calibrate Volatility Diffusions and Extract the Forward Integrated Variance
, 1999
"... A common model for security price dynamics is the continuous time stochastic volatility model. For this model, Hull and White (1987) show that the price of a derivative claim is the conditional expectation of the Black-Scholes price with the forward integrated variance replacing the Black-Scholes va ..."
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Cited by 103 (5 self)
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A common model for security price dynamics is the continuous time stochastic volatility model. For this model, Hull and White (1987) show that the price of a derivative claim is the conditional expectation of the Black-Scholes price with the forward integrated variance replacing the Black-Scholes variance. Implementing the Hull and White characterization requires both estimates of the price dynamics and the conditional distribution of the forward integrated variance given observed variables. Using daily data on close-to-close price movement and the daily range, we find that standard models do not fit the data very well and a more general three factor model does better, as it mimics the long-memory feature of financial volatility. We develop techniques for estimating the conditional distribution of the forward integrated variance given observed variables. 1 Introduction This paper has two objectives: The first is to extend and implement methods for estimating diffusion models of secu...
Spectral GMM estimation of continuous-time processes,”
- Journal of Econometrics,
, 2003
"... Abstract This paper derives a methodology for the estimation of continuous-time stochastic models based on the characteristic function. The estimation method does not require discretization of the stochastic process, and it is simple to apply in practice. The method is essentially generalized metho ..."
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Cited by 84 (3 self)
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Abstract This paper derives a methodology for the estimation of continuous-time stochastic models based on the characteristic function. The estimation method does not require discretization of the stochastic process, and it is simple to apply in practice. The method is essentially generalized method of moments on the complex plane. Hence it shares the e ciency and distribution properties of GMM estimators. We illustrate the method with some applications to relevant estimation problems in continuous-time Finance. We estimate a model of stochastic volatility, a jump-diffusion model with constant volatility and a model that nests both the stochastic volatility model and the jump-di usion model. We ÿnd that negative jumps are important to explain skewness and asymmetry in excess kurtosis of the stock return distribution, while stochastic volatility is important to capture the overall level of this kurtosis. Positive jumps are not statistically significant once we allow for stochastic volatility in the model. We also estimate a non-a ne model of stochastic volatility, and ÿnd that the power of the di usion coe cient appears to be between one and two, rather than the value of one-half that leads to the standard a ne stochastic volatility model. However, we ÿnd that including jumps into this non-a ne, stochastic volatility model reduces the power of the di usion coe cient to one-half. Finally, we o er an explanation for the observation that the estimate of persistence in stochastic volatility increases dramatically as the frequency of the observed data falls based on a multiple factor stochastic volatility model.
