We study a model of establishment dynamics in which entrepreneurs face a financing constraint. We ask: does the model, when parameterized to match salient features of plant-level data, predict large aggregate TFP losses from misallocation? Our answer is: No. We estimate financing frictions that are fairly large: in our economy half of the establishments face binding borrowing constraints and an implicit external finance premium of 55 % on average. Efficient establishments are, nonetheless, able to quickly accumulate internal funds and grow out of their borrowing constraint. Parameterizations of the model under which this process of internal accumulation is hindered can, in principle, cause very large TFP losses. Such parameterizations are, however, at odds with important features of plant-level data: the variability and persistence of plant-level output, as well as differences in the return to capital and output growth rates across young and old plants.

We study the cyclical implications of credit market imperfections in a dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium model wherein firms face persistent shocks to both aggregate and individual productivity. In our model economy, optimal capital reallocation is distorted by two frictions. First, collateralized borrowing constraints limit the investment undertaken by small firms with relatively high productivity. Second, specificity in firm-level capital implies partial investment irreversibilities that lead firms to pursue (S,s) decision rules. This second friction compounds the first in implying that a subset of firms carry a share of the aggregate capital stock disproportionate to their productivity, thereby reducing endogenous aggregate total factor productivity. In the presence of persistent heterogeneity in capital, debt and total factor productivity, the effects of a financial shock are amplified and propagated through large and long-lived disruptions to the distribution of capital that, in turn, imply large and persistent reductions in aggregate total factor productivity. Measuring these effects in a quantitative model, we find that an unanticipated tightening in borrowing conditions can, on its own, generate a large recession more persistent than the financial shock itself. This recession, and the subsequent recovery, is distinguished both

This article surveys the macroeconomic implications of financial frictions. Financial frictions lead to persistence and when combined with illiquidity to nonlinear amplification effects. Risk is endogenous and liquidity spirals cause financial instability. Increasing margins further restrict leverage and exacerbate downturns. A demand for liquid assets and a role for money emerges. The market outcome is generically not even constrained efficient and the issuance of government debt can lead to a Pareto improvement. While financial institutions can mitigate frictions, they introduce additional fragility and through their erratic money creation harm price stability.

One of the most important developments in the growth literature of the last decade is the enhanced appreciation of the role that the misallocation of resources plays in helping us understand income differences across countries. Misallocation at the micro level typically reduces total factor productivity at the macro level. Quantifying these effects is leading growth researchers in new directions, two examples being the extensive use of firm-level data and the exploration of input-output tables, and promises to yield new insights on why some countries are so much richer than others.

We examine the quantitative importance of financial market shocks in accounting for business cycle fluctuations. We emphasize the role financial markets play in reallocating funds from cash-rich, low productivity firms to cash-poor, high productivity firms. Using evidence on financial flows at the firm level, we find that for publicly traded firms (in Compustat), almost all investment is financed internally. However, using an alternative data source (Amadeus), we find that most investment by privately held firms is financed through borrowing. Motivated by these observations, we build a quantitative model featuring publicly and privately held firms that face collateral constraints and idiosyncratic risk over productivity as well as non-financial linkages. In our calibrated model, we find that a shock to the collateral constraints which generates a one standard deviation decline in the debt-to-asset ratio leads to a 0.5 % decline in aggregate output on impact, roughly comparable to the effect of a one standard deviation shock to aggregate productivity in a standard real business cycle model. In this sense, we find that disturbances in financial markets are a promising source of business cycle fluctuations when non-financial linkages across firms are sufficiently strong. We are indebted to V.V. Chari and Larry Jones for valuable advice. We would also like to thank Patrick

Abstract We use detailed income, balance sheet, and cash flow statements constructed for households in a long monthly panel in an emerging market economy, and some recent contributions in economic theory, to document and better understand the factors underlying success in achieving upward mobility in the distribution of net worth. Wealth inequality is decreasing over time, and many households work their way out of poverty and lower wealth over the seven year period. The accounts establish that, mechanically, this is largely due to savings rather than incoming gifts and remittances. In turn, the growth of net worth can be decomposed household by household into the savings rate and how productively that savings is used, the return on assets (ROA). The latter plays the larger role. ROA is, in turn, positively correlated with higher education of household members, younger age of the head, and with a higher debt/asset ratio and lower initial wealth, so it seems from cross-sections that the financial system is imperfectly channeling resources to productive and poor households. Household fixed effects account for the larger part of ROA, and this success is largely persistent, undercutting the story that successful entrepreneurs are those that simply get lucky. Persistence does vary across households, and in at least one province with much change and increasing opportunities, ROA changes as households move over time to higher-return occupations. But for those households with high and persistent ROA, the savings rate is higher, consistent with some micro founded macro models with imperfect credit markets. Indeed, high ROA households save by investing in their own enterprises and adopt consistent financial strategies for smoothing fluctuations. More generally savings levels and/or rates are correlated with TFP and household fixed effects.

I analyze a model of production in a competitive environment with heterogeneous …rms. E ¢ cient production requires individuals within the organization to take noncontractible actions for which rewards must be informally promised rather than contractually assured. The credibility of such promises emerges from a …rm’s future competitive rents. Equilibrium competitive rents are ine ¢ ciently concentrated at the top. I explore several policy and empirical implications of this result. (JEL D21, D24, L14, L22)

Abstract We investigate the role of dynamic production inputs and their associated adjustment costs in shaping the dispersion of total factor productivity (TFP) and static measures of capital misallocation within a country. Using data on 5,010 establishments in 33 developing countries from the World Bank's Enterprise Research Data, we find that countries exhibiting greater time-series volatility of productivity are also characterized by greater cross-sectional dispersion in productivity. Volatility in TFP explains one quarter to onethird of cross-country productivity dispersion. We document a similar relationship between productivity volatility and the dispersion of the marginal revenue product of capital (static capital misallocation). We then use a standard model of investment with adjustment costs, parameterized using numbers calibrated to U.S. data, to show that increasing the volatility of productivity to the level observed in these developing economies can quantitatively replicate the observed relationship between static misallocation and volatility observed in the data. We find that sixty-one percent of the static capital misallocation in the data is captured by the model's prediction. Our findings suggest that the dynamic process governing productivity shocks is a first-order determinant of differences in misallocation and, hence, income across countries.

Abstract We study a class of continuous time heterogeneous agent models with idiosyncratic shocks and incomplete markets. This class can be boiled down to a system of two coupled partial differential equations: a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation and a Kolmogorov Forward equation, a system that Lasry and Lions (2007) have termed a "Mean Field Game." We study two concrete model economies to show that continuous time allows for both tighter theoretical results and more precise and efficient computations as compared to traditional discrete time methods. The first one is an exact reformulation of Aiyagari (1994) and we obtain three theoretical results: a tight characterization of household savings behavior near the borrowing constraint, uniqueness of a stationary equilibrium (not yet in the current draft), and a tight link between the amount of capital "overaccumulation" and the number of borrowing constrained households. In our second economy, heterogeneous producers face collateral constraints and fixed costs in production, creating the possibility of a "poverty trap," i.e. multiple stationary equilibria. We find that such "poverty traps" arise only in extreme special cases. Instead the economy typically features a unique but twin-peaked stationary distributions to which it converges extremely slowly. The precision of our algorithm is key for this finding, and coarse, simulation-based discrete-time algorithms may have obtained misleading results. We conclude by discussing an extension of our framework to the case with both idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks as in

Financial reform designed to improve creditor protection is often encouraged as a way to increase credit access for firms in developing countries. In this paper, I show that when court enforcement works poorly, financial reform is ineffective in fostering both credit access and the productivity of firms. In the empirical analysis, I exploit variation in the quality of court enforcement across Brazilian judicial districts and use a panel of manufacturing firms. I find that, after the introduction of a major pro-creditor bankruptcy reform, firms operating in districts with efficient court enforcement experienced substantially higher increase in capital investment and productivity than firms operating in districts with poor court enforcement. I provide evidence that this effect is due to a higher probability of external funds being used to finance investment in new technologies. To show that the results are not driven by district-level omitted variables, I use an IV strategy based on state laws establishing the geographical boundaries of judicial districts.