Abstract not found

This paper examines how well forecasters can predict the future time path of (policy-determined) short-term interest rates. Most prior work has been done using U.S. data; in this exercise we use forecasts made for New Zealand by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and those derived from money market yield curves in the United Kingdom. We broadly replicate recent U.S. findings for New Zealand and the United Kingdom, to show that such forecasts in New Zealand and the United Kingdom have been excellent for the immediate forthcoming quarter, reasonable for the next quarter, and useless thereafter. Moreover, when ex post errors are assessed depending on whether interest rates have been in an upward, or downward, section of the cycle, they are shown to have been biased and, apparently, inefficient. We attempt to explain those findings, and examine whether the apparent ex post forecast inefficiencies may still be consistent with ex ante forecast efficiency. We conclude, first, that the best forecast may be a hybrid containing a specific forecast for the next six months and a “no-change ” assumption thereafter, and, second, that the modal forecast for interest rates, and maybe for other variables as well, is skewed, generally underestimating the likely continuation of the current phase of the cycle.

∗We are grateful to Brent Bundick and Michael Bauer for comments on an earlier draft. thanks the JSPS Postdoctoral Fellowships for Research Abroad for financial support. Okimoto This paper relates predictable gains from positions in fed funds futures contracts to violations of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates. Although evidence for predictable gains from positions in short-horizon contracts is mixed, we find that gains in longer horizon contracts can be well described using Markov-switching models, with predictability associated with particular episodes in which economic activity was weak and variability in the returns to these contracts was quite high. 2 1

to non-financial corporations in the euro area by Christoffer Kok Sørensen,

Abstract not found

Abstract In this paper, we test whether micro firms run by migrants pay more for credit than firms run by natives and whether the differences in the cost of credit for these two groups of entrepreneurs decrease as the informational and cultural gaps narrow. We employ a large and unique data set providing us with detailed information on each overdraft loan granted by banks to sole proprietorships based in Italy. We find that migrants pay, on average, almost 70 basis points more for credit than natives. The interest rate differential is lower for entrepreneurs born in Italy whose parents were natives of other countries ("second generation" migrants) and for migrants whose parents were natives of Italy ("Italian migrants"). These results suggest that cultural differences may matter for the functioning of the credit market. A lengthening of credit history reduces the interest rate differential between the two types of entrepreneurs. Finally, we find that both increases in the size of the migrant community and improvements in banks' ability to deal with cultural diversity help narrow the interest rate differential between migrant and Italian entrepreneurs. JEL Classification: G21, J15, J71.

Abstract In this paper we explore the performance of bridge and factor models in forecasting quarterly aggregates in the very short-term subject to a pre-selection of monthly indicators. Starting from a large information set, we select a subset of targeted predictors using data reduction techniques as in Bai and Ng JEL Classification: C52, C53, E37

Abstract This paper analyses the effect of competition from low-wage countries on domestic activity, using data on 230 Italian manufacturing sectors between 1995 and 2007. It finds that low-wage import penetration is negatively related to employment and other measures of activity. The effect is significantly smaller in more skill, capital and R&D-intensive sectors and in more vertically differentiated sectors. There is also evidence of significant effects of low-wage competition through inter-industry linkages: employment is negatively related to low-wage import penetration in downstream sectors but positively related to low-wage import penetration in upstream sectors. JEL Classification: F16, F14, L60, D57.

Number 796 Temi di discussione (Working papers) Securitization is not that evil after all

Number 856 Temi di discussione (Working papers) Optimal dynamic public communication by Marcello Miccoli Number 856- February 2012The purpose of the Temi di discussione series is to promote the circulation of working papers prepared within the Bank of Italy or presented in Bank seminars by outside economists with the aim of stimulating comments and suggestions. The views expressed in the articles are those of the authors and do not involve the responsibility of the Bank.