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166
On the Economic Consequences of Civil War
- Oxford Economic Papers
, 1998
"... A model of the economic effects of civil war and the post-war period is developed. A key feature is the adjustment of the capital stock through capital flight. Post-war this flight can either be reversed or continue, depending partly upon how far the capital stock has adjusted to the war. The model ..."
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Cited by 95 (3 self)
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A model of the economic effects of civil war and the post-war period is developed. A key feature is the adjustment of the capital stock through capital flight. Post-war this flight can either be reversed or continue, depending partly upon how far the capital stock has adjusted to the war. The model is tested on data for all civil wars since 1960. After long civil wars the economy recovers rapidly, whereas after short wars it continues to decline. We then consider the effect on the composition of economic activity, distinguishing between war-vulnerable and war-safe activities. Evidence for Uganda shows such compositional effects to be substantial.
Civil War
- JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC LITERATURE
, 2010
"... Most nations have experienced an internal armed conflict since 1960. Yet while civil war is central to many nations’ development, it has stood at the periphery of economics research and teaching. The past decade has witnessed a long overdue explosion of research into war’s causes and consequences. W ..."
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Cited by 93 (6 self)
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Most nations have experienced an internal armed conflict since 1960. Yet while civil war is central to many nations’ development, it has stood at the periphery of economics research and teaching. The past decade has witnessed a long overdue explosion of research into war’s causes and consequences. We summarize progress, identify weaknesses, and chart a path forward. Why war? Existing theory is provocative but incomplete, omitting advances in behavioral economics and making little progress in key areas, like why armed groups form and cohere, or how more than two armed sides compete. Empirical work finds that low per capita incomes and slow economic growth are both robustly linked to civil war. Yet there is little consensus on the most effective policies to avert conflicts or promote postwar recovery. Cross-country analysis of war will benefit from more attention to causal identification and stronger links to theory. We argue that micro-level analysis and case studies are also crucial to decipher war’s causes, conduct, and consequences. We bring a growth theoretic approach to the study of conflict consequences to highlight areas for research, most of all the study of war’s impact on institutions. We
Beyond Greed and Grievance: Feasibility and Civil War
, 2006
"... A key distinction among theories of civil war is between those that are built upon motivation and those that are built upon feasibility. We analyze a comprehensive global sample of civil wars for the period 1965-2004 and subject the results to a range of robustness tests. The data constitute a subst ..."
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Cited by 88 (16 self)
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A key distinction among theories of civil war is between those that are built upon motivation and those that are built upon feasibility. We analyze a comprehensive global sample of civil wars for the period 1965-2004 and subject the results to a range of robustness tests. The data constitute a substantial advance on previous work. We find that variables that are close proxies for feasibility have powerful consequences for the risk of a civil war. Our results substantiate the 'feasibility hypothesis ' that where civil war is feasible it will occur without reference to motivation. 2 1.
2000) 'Crisis Prevention: Tackling Horizontal Inequalities
- Oxford Development Studies
"... ABSTRACT This paper analyses the economic and social causes of con ict, drawing con-clusions for con ict prevention. Civil wars normally occur when groups mobilize against each other, on the basis of some cultural characteristic like ethnicity or religion. It is suggested that horizontal inequalit ..."
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Cited by 56 (2 self)
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ABSTRACT This paper analyses the economic and social causes of con ict, drawing con-clusions for con ict prevention. Civil wars normally occur when groups mobilize against each other, on the basis of some cultural characteristic like ethnicity or religion. It is suggested that horizontal inequalities, i.e. inequalities among groups in political, economic and social dimensions, provide the basis for inter-group animosity. Policies to limit excessive horizontal inequalities are needed in all vulnerable countries. 1.
Diamonds Are Forever, Wars Are Not. Is Conflict Bad for Private Firms?”, American Economic Review, forthcoming
"... This paper studies the relationship between civil war and the value of firms in a poor, resource abundant country using microeconomic data for Angola. We focus on diamond mining firms and conduct an event study on the sudden end of the conflict, marked by the death of the rebel movement leader in 20 ..."
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Cited by 33 (1 self)
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This paper studies the relationship between civil war and the value of firms in a poor, resource abundant country using microeconomic data for Angola. We focus on diamond mining firms and conduct an event study on the sudden end of the conflict, marked by the death of the rebel movement leader in 2002. We find that the stock market perceived this event as “bad news ” rather than “good news ” for companies holding concessions in Angola, as their abnormal returns declined by 4 percentage points. The event had no effect on a control portfolio of otherwise similar diamond mining companies. This finding is corroborated by other events and by the adoption of alternative methodologies. We interpret our findings in the light of conflict-generated entry barriers, government bargaining power and transparency in the licensing process.
Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity
, 2009
"... According to the economic approach to political transitions, transitory negative economic shocks can open a window of opportunity for democratic improvement. Testing the theory requires a source of transitory shocks to the aggregate economy. We use rainfall shocks in Sub-Saharan African countries a ..."
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Cited by 33 (1 self)
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According to the economic approach to political transitions, transitory negative economic shocks can open a window of opportunity for democratic improvement. Testing the theory requires a source of transitory shocks to the aggregate economy. We use rainfall shocks in Sub-Saharan African countries and find that negative rainfall shocks are followed by significant improvement in democratic institutions. Instrumental variables estimates indicate that following a transitory negative income shock of 1 percent, democracy scores improve by 0.9 percentage points and the probability of a democratic transition increases by 1.3 percentage points.
Accountability and Corruption
, 2001
"... This study uses a cross-country panel to examine the determinants of corruption, paying particular attention to political institutions that increase political accountability. Previous empirical studies have not analyzed the role of political institutions, even though both political science and econo ..."
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Cited by 25 (1 self)
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This study uses a cross-country panel to examine the determinants of corruption, paying particular attention to political institutions that increase political accountability. Previous empirical studies have not analyzed the role of political institutions, even though both political science and economics theoretical literatures have indicated their importance in determining corruption. The main theoretical hypothesis guiding our empirical investigation is that political institutions affect corruption through two channels: political accountability and the structure of provision of public goods. The main results show that political institutions seem to be extremely important in determining the prevalence of corruption. In short, democracies, parliamentary systems, political stability, and freedom of press are all associated with lower corruption. Additionally, we show that common results of the previous empirical literature on the determinants of corruption -- related to openness and legal tradition -- do not hold once political variables are taken into account.
The Strategy of Paired Comparison: Toward a Theory of Practice.” Comparative Political Studies 43(2
, 2010
"... Paired comparison is a strategy of political analysis that has been widely used but seldom theorized. This is because it is often assimilated to single-case studies or regarded as a degenerate form of multicase analysis. This article argues that paired comparison is a distinct strategy of comparativ ..."
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Cited by 24 (0 self)
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Paired comparison is a strategy of political analysis that has been widely used but seldom theorized. This is because it is often assimilated to single-case studies or regarded as a degenerate form of multicase analysis. This article argues that paired comparison is a distinct strategy of comparative analysis with advantages that both single-case and multicase comparisons lack. After reviewing how paired comparison has been dealt with in comparative politics, the article details a number of its advantages and pitfalls, illustrates them through the work of four major pairing comparativists, and proposes what is distinct about the strategy. It closes with a number of suggestions for using paired comparison more effectively. Keywords paired comparison, methodology, comparative theory This article examines a strategy of comparative analysis that has been widely used but little theorized—paired comparison. It has been used since Alexis de Tocqueville used it implicitly across his two most famous books, Democracy in America and The Old Regime and the French Revolution. And it has recently been used effectively by authors as different as Valerie Bunce, Peter
Homo Economicus goes to war: methodological individualism, rational choice and the political economy of war. World Dev 30:1845–64
"... Summary. — Neoclassical economic theories of violent conflict have proliferated in recent years and, with their application to contemporary wars, have influenced donors and policy makers. This paper reviews the intellectual foundations and empirical substance of such theories and offers a critique d ..."
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Cited by 20 (1 self)
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Summary. — Neoclassical economic theories of violent conflict have proliferated in recent years and, with their application to contemporary wars, have influenced donors and policy makers. This paper reviews the intellectual foundations and empirical substance of such theories and offers a critique drawing on a political economy perspective. There are strong grounds for arguing that orthodox economic theories of war are reductionist, speculative, and misleading. Theories that are driven by methodological individualism are compelled somehow to model ‘‘the social’ ’ as it affects contemporary warfor example, by appeal to indices of ethno-linguistic fragmentationbut do so in ways that fail to capture reality and its variations.
LINKING CONFLICT TO INEQUALITY AND POLARIZATION
, 2010
"... In this paper we study a behavioral model of conflict that provides a basis for choosing certain indices of dispersion as indicators for conflict. We show that a suitable monotone transform of the equilibrium level of conflict can be proxied by a linear function of the Gini coefficient, the Herfinda ..."
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Cited by 19 (1 self)
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In this paper we study a behavioral model of conflict that provides a basis for choosing certain indices of dispersion as indicators for conflict. We show that a suitable monotone transform of the equilibrium level of conflict can be proxied by a linear function of the Gini coefficient, the Herfindahl-Hirschman fractionalization index, and a specific measure of polarization due to Esteban and Ray.
