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604
An exact likelihood analysis of the multinomial probit model
, 1994
"... We develop new methods for conducting a finite sample, likelihoodbased analysis of the multinomial probit model. Using a variant of the Gibbs sampler, an algorithm is developed to draw from the exact posterior of the multinomial probit model with correlated errors. This approach avoids direct evalu ..."
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Cited by 166 (6 self)
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We develop new methods for conducting a finite sample, likelihoodbased analysis of the multinomial probit model. Using a variant of the Gibbs sampler, an algorithm is developed to draw from the exact posterior of the multinomial probit model with correlated errors. This approach avoids direct evaluation of the likelihood and, thus, avoids the problems associated with calculating choice probabilities which affect both the standard likelihood and method of simulated moments approaches. Both simulated and actual consumer panel data are used to fit sixdimensional choice models. We also develop methods for analyzing random coefficient and multiperiod probit models.
The TimeVarying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations
, 2006
"... In this paper we investigate the sources of the important shifts in the volatility of U.S. macroeconomic variables in the postwar period. To this end, we propose the estimation of DSGE models allowing for time variation in the volatility of the structural innovations. We apply our estimation strate ..."
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Cited by 160 (5 self)
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In this paper we investigate the sources of the important shifts in the volatility of U.S. macroeconomic variables in the postwar period. To this end, we propose the estimation of DSGE models allowing for time variation in the volatility of the structural innovations. We apply our estimation strategy to a largescale model of the business cycle and find that investment specific technology shocks account for most of the sharp decline in volatility of the last two decades.
How Many Iterations in the Gibbs Sampler?
 In Bayesian Statistics 4
, 1992
"... When the Gibbs sampler is used to estimate posterior distributions (Gelfand and Smith, 1990), the question of how many iterations are required is central to its implementation. When interest focuses on quantiles of functionals of the posterior distribution, we describe an easilyimplemented metho ..."
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Cited by 159 (6 self)
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When the Gibbs sampler is used to estimate posterior distributions (Gelfand and Smith, 1990), the question of how many iterations are required is central to its implementation. When interest focuses on quantiles of functionals of the posterior distribution, we describe an easilyimplemented method for determining the total number of iterations required, and also the number of initial iterations that should be discarded to allow for "burnin". The method uses only the Gibbs iterates themselves, and does not, for example, require external specification of characteristics of the posterior density. Here the method is described for the situation where one long run is generated, but it can also be easily applied if there are several runs from different starting points. It also applies more generally to Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes other than the Gibbs sampler. It can also be used when several quantiles are to be estimated, when the quantities of interest are probabilities rath...
Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation Methods in Econometrics
, 1993
"... We present several Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation methods that have been widely used in recent years in econometrics and statistics. Among these is the Gibbs sampler, which has been of particular interest to econometricians. Although the paper summarizes some of the relevant theoretical literat ..."
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Cited by 153 (9 self)
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We present several Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation methods that have been widely used in recent years in econometrics and statistics. Among these is the Gibbs sampler, which has been of particular interest to econometricians. Although the paper summarizes some of the relevant theoretical literature, its emphasis is on the presentation and explanation of applications to important models that are studied in econometrics. We include a discussion of some implementation issues, the use of the methods in connection with the EM algorithm, and how the methods can be helpful in model specification questions. Many of the applications of these methods are of particular interest to Bayesians, but we also point out ways in which frequentist statisticians may find the techniques useful.
MCMC Analysis of Diffusion Models with Application to Finance
 Journal of Business and Economic Statistics
, 1998
"... This paper proposes a new method for estimation of parameters in diffusion processes from ..."
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Cited by 143 (4 self)
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This paper proposes a new method for estimation of parameters in diffusion processes from
Bayesian Treatment of the Independent Studentt Linear Model
 JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS
, 1993
"... This article takes up methods for Bayesian inference in a linear model in which the disturbances are independent and have identical Studentt distributions. It exploits the equivalence of the Studentt distribution and an appropriate scale mixture of normals, and uses a Gibbs sampler to perform the ..."
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Cited by 128 (2 self)
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This article takes up methods for Bayesian inference in a linear model in which the disturbances are independent and have identical Studentt distributions. It exploits the equivalence of the Studentt distribution and an appropriate scale mixture of normals, and uses a Gibbs sampler to perform the computations. The new method is applied to some wellknown macroeconomic time series. It is found that posterior odds ratios favor the independent Studentt linear model over the normal linear model, and that the posterior odds ratio in favor of difference stationarity over trend stationarity is often substantially less in the favored Studentt models.
Walking in Facebook: A Case Study of Unbiased Sampling of OSNs
 IN PROC. IEEE INFOCOM
, 2010
"... With more than 250 million active users [1], Facebook (FB) is currently one of the most important online social networks. Our goal in this paper is to obtain a representative (unbiased) sample of Facebook users by crawling its social graph. In this quest, we consider and implement several candidate ..."
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Cited by 114 (13 self)
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With more than 250 million active users [1], Facebook (FB) is currently one of the most important online social networks. Our goal in this paper is to obtain a representative (unbiased) sample of Facebook users by crawling its social graph. In this quest, we consider and implement several candidate techniques. Two approaches that are found to perform well are the MetropolisHasting random walk (MHRW) and a reweighted random walk (RWRW). Both have pros and cons, which we demonstrate through a comparison to each other as well as to the ”groundtruth ” (UNI obtained through true uniform sampling of FB userIDs). In contrast, the traditional BreadthFirstSearch (BFS) and Random Walk (RW) perform quite poorly, producing substantially biased results. In addition to offline performance assessment, we introduce onlineformal convergence diagnostics to assess sample quality during the data collection process. We show how these can be used to effectively determine when a random walk sample is of adequate size and quality for subsequent use (i.e., when it is safe to cease sampling). Using these methods, we collect the first, to the best of our knowledge, unbiased sample of Facebook. Finally, we use one of our representative datasets, collected through MHRW, to characterize several key properties of Facebook.
BUGS: Bayesian inference using Gibbs sampling. Version 1.4.1, Medical Research council BiostatisticsUnit, CambridgeUniversity,
, 2004
"... ..."
AWTY (Are We There Yet?): a system for graphical exploration of MCMC convergence in Bayesian phylogenetics
, 2007
"... Summary: A key element to a successful Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inference is the programming and run performance of the Markov chain. However, the explicit use of quality assessments of the MCMC simulations—convergence diagnostics—in phylogenetics is still uncommon. Here we present a simple t ..."
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Cited by 108 (5 self)
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Summary: A key element to a successful Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inference is the programming and run performance of the Markov chain. However, the explicit use of quality assessments of the MCMC simulations—convergence diagnostics—in phylogenetics is still uncommon. Here we present a simple tool that uses the output from MCMC simulations and visualizes a number of properties of primary interest in a Bayesian phylogenetic analysis, such as convergence rates of posterior split probabilities and branch lengths. Graphical exploration of the output from phylogenetic MCMC simulations gives intuitive and often crucial information on the success and reliability of the analysis. The tool presented here complements convergence diagnostics already available in other software packages primarily designed for other applications of MCMC. Importantly, the common practice of using traceplots of a single parameter or summary statistic, such as the likelihood score of sampled trees, can be misleading for assessing the success of a phylogenetic MCMC simulation.