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Spatial modelling using a new class of nonstationary covariance functions
 Environmetrics
, 2006
"... We introduce a new class of nonstationary covariance functions for spatial modelling. Nonstationary covariance functions allow the model to adapt to spatial surfaces whose variability changes with location. The class includes a nonstationary version of the Matérn stationary covariance, in which the ..."
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Cited by 63 (0 self)
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We introduce a new class of nonstationary covariance functions for spatial modelling. Nonstationary covariance functions allow the model to adapt to spatial surfaces whose variability changes with location. The class includes a nonstationary version of the Matérn stationary covariance, in which the differentiability of the spatial surface is controlled by a parameter, freeing one from fixing the differentiability in advance. The class allows one to knit together local covariance parameters into a valid global nonstationary covariance, regardless of how the local covariance structure is estimated. We employ this new nonstationary covariance in a fully Bayesian model in which the unknown spatial process has a Gaussian process (GP) distribution with a nonstationary covariance function from the class. We model the nonstationary structure in a computationally efficient way that creates nearly stationary local behavior and for which stationarity is a special case. We also suggest nonBayesian approaches to nonstationary kriging. To assess the method, we compare the Bayesian nonstationary GP model with a Bayesian stationary GP model, various standard spatial smoothing approaches, and nonstationary models that can adapt to function heterogeneity. In simulations, the nonstationary GP model adapts to function heterogeneity, unlike the stationary models, and also outperforms the other nonstationary models. On a real dataset, GP models outperform the competitors, but while the nonstationary GP gives qualitatively more sensible results, it fails to outperform the stationary GP on heldout data, illustrating the difficulty in fitting complex spatial functions with relatively few observations. The nonstationary covariance model could also be used for nonGaussian data and embedded in additive models as well as in more complicated, hierarchical spatial or spatiotemporal models. More complicated models may require simpler parameterizations for computational efficiency.
Nonstationary Covariance Functions for Gaussian Process Regression
 In Proc. of the Conf. on Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS
, 2004
"... We introduce a class of nonstationary covariance functions for Gaussian process (GP) regression. Nonstationary covariance functions allow the model to adapt to functions whose smoothness varies with the inputs. ..."
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Cited by 58 (2 self)
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We introduce a class of nonstationary covariance functions for Gaussian process (GP) regression. Nonstationary covariance functions allow the model to adapt to functions whose smoothness varies with the inputs.
Dependent Gaussian processes
 In NIPS
, 2004
"... Gaussian processes are usually parameterised in terms of their covariance functions. However, this makes it difficult to deal with multiple outputs, because ensuring that the covariance matrix is positive definite is problematic. An alternative formulation is to treat Gaussian processes as white no ..."
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Cited by 50 (0 self)
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Gaussian processes are usually parameterised in terms of their covariance functions. However, this makes it difficult to deal with multiple outputs, because ensuring that the covariance matrix is positive definite is problematic. An alternative formulation is to treat Gaussian processes as white noise sources convolved with smoothing kernels, and to parameterise the kernel instead. Using this, we extend Gaussian processes to handle multiple, coupled outputs. 1
A framework for evaluating approximation methods for Gaussian process regression
 Journal of Machine Learning Research
"... Gaussian process (GP) predictors are an important component of many Bayesian approaches to machine learning. However, even a straightforward implementation of Gaussian process regression (GPR) requires O(n2) space and O(n3) time for a dataset of n examples. Several approximation methods have been pr ..."
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Cited by 17 (0 self)
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Gaussian process (GP) predictors are an important component of many Bayesian approaches to machine learning. However, even a straightforward implementation of Gaussian process regression (GPR) requires O(n2) space and O(n3) time for a dataset of n examples. Several approximation methods have been proposed, but there is a lack of understanding of the relative merits of the different approximations, and in what situations they are most useful. We recommend assessing the quality of the predictions obtained as a function of the compute time taken, and comparing to standard baselines (e.g., Subset of Data and FITC). We empirically investigate four different approximation algorithms on four different prediction problems, and make our code available to encourage future comparisons.
Using Gaussian Processes to Optimize Expensive Functions.
"... Abstract. The task of finding the optimum of some function f(x) is commonly accomplished by generating and testing sample solutions iteratively, choosing each new sample x heuristically on the basis of results to date. We use Gaussian processes to represent predictions and uncertainty about the true ..."
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Cited by 14 (0 self)
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Abstract. The task of finding the optimum of some function f(x) is commonly accomplished by generating and testing sample solutions iteratively, choosing each new sample x heuristically on the basis of results to date. We use Gaussian processes to represent predictions and uncertainty about the true function, and describe how to use these predictions to choose where to take each new sample in an optimal way. By doing this we were able to solve a difficult optimization problem finding weights in a neural network controller to simultaneously balance two vertical poles using an order of magnitude fewer samples than reported elsewhere. 1
Gaussian Processes and Fast MatrixVector Multiplies
"... Gaussian processes (GPs) provide a flexible framework for probabilistic regression. The necessary computations involve standard matrix operations. There have been several attempts to accelerate these operations based on fast kernel matrixvector multiplications. By focussing on the simplest GP compu ..."
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Cited by 8 (1 self)
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Gaussian processes (GPs) provide a flexible framework for probabilistic regression. The necessary computations involve standard matrix operations. There have been several attempts to accelerate these operations based on fast kernel matrixvector multiplications. By focussing on the simplest GP computation, corresponding to testtime predictions in kernel ridge regression, we conclude that simple approximations based on clusterings in a kdtree can never work well for simple regression problems. Analytical expansions can provide speedups, but current implementations are limited to the squaredexponential kernel and lowdimensional problems. We discuss future directions. 1.
Multiple output gaussian process regression
, 2005
"... Gaussian processes are usually parameterised in terms of their covariance functions. However, this makes it difficult to deal with multiple outputs, because ensuring that the covariance matrix is positive definite is problematic. An alternative formulation is to treat Gaussian processes as white noi ..."
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Cited by 7 (0 self)
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Gaussian processes are usually parameterised in terms of their covariance functions. However, this makes it difficult to deal with multiple outputs, because ensuring that the covariance matrix is positive definite is problematic. An alternative formulation is to treat Gaussian processes as white noise sources convolved with smoothing kernels, and to parameterise the kernel instead. Using this, we extend Gaussian processes to handle multiple, coupled outputs. 1
A Framework for Evaluating Approximation Methods for Gaussian Process Regression
"... Gaussian process (GP) predictors are an important component of many Bayesian approaches to machine learning. However, even a straightforward implementation of Gaussian process regression (GPR) requires O(n 2) space and O(n 3) time for a data set of n examples. Several approximation methods have been ..."
Abstract
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Gaussian process (GP) predictors are an important component of many Bayesian approaches to machine learning. However, even a straightforward implementation of Gaussian process regression (GPR) requires O(n 2) space and O(n 3) time for a data set of n examples. Several approximation methods have been proposed, but there is a lack of understanding of the relative merits of the different approximations, and in what situations they are most useful. We recommend assessing the quality of the predictions obtained as a function of the compute time taken, and comparing to standard baselines (e.g., Subset of Data and FITC). We empirically investigate four different approximation algorithms on four different prediction problems, and make our code available to encourage future comparisons.