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Pro-poor growth How important is macroeconomic stability?

We consider an economy à la Lucas (1978, Econometrica 46, 1429–1446) with a risk-averse representative agent. The exogenous growth rate of the economy follows a random walk. We characterize the set of utility functions for which it is efficient to discount more distant cash flows at a lower rate. The benchmark result is that, when the growth rate is almost surely nonnegative, the yield curve is decreasing if and only if relative risk aversion is decreasing with wealth. Relaxing the assumption on the absence of recession requires more restrictions on preferences, such as increasing relative prudence.

Reinforcement learning aims to determine an (infinite time horizon) optimal control policy from interaction with a system. It can be solved by approximating the so-called Q-function from a sample of four-tuples (x t, u t , r t, x t+1) where x t denotes the system state at time t, u t the control

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forecasts. The empirical results suggest that combination forecasts overall play an important role in the improvement of forecasting accuracy in that they are superior to the best of the individual forecasts over different forecasting horizons. Furthermore, the simple average combination method

We present exact analytic results for a new version of the Minority Game (MG) in which strategy performance is recorded over a finite time horizon. The dynamics of this Time Horizon Minority Game (THMG) exhibit many distinct features from the MG and depend strongly on whether the participants

Background: Mortality from invasive candidiasis is high. Low culture sensitivity and treatment delay contribute to increased mortality, but nonselective early therapy may result in excess costs and drug resistance. Objective: To determine the cost-effectiveness of anti-Candida strategies for high-risk patients in the intensive care unit (ICU).

able. Objective: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of strate-gies using cardiac markers and noninvasive tests for myo-cardial ischemia. Design: Cost-effectiveness analysis.