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10,213
Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment
- Psychological Review
, 1983
"... Perhaps the simplest and the most basic qualitative law of probability is the conjunction rule: The probability of a conjunction, P(A&B), cannot exceed the probabilities of its constituents, P(A) and.P(B), because the extension (or the possibility set) of the conjunction is included in the exten ..."
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Cited by 461 (6 self)
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prognosis, decision under risk, suspicion of criminal acts, and political forecasting. Systematic violations of the conjunction rule are observed in judgments of lay people and of experts in both between-subjects and within-subjects comparisons. Alternative interpretations of the conjunction fallacy
Sham Surgery and Reasonable Risks
"... One of the most fundamental tensions within clinical research arises from the need to balance the goal of advancing the frontiers of science in order to improve the standard of care available to future persons with the goal of responding with diligence and compassion to the important interests and h ..."
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for their condition. While opportunity costs remain a concern in the case of sham-surgery controls, the latter also raise additional concerns because the so-called placebo or sham surgeries often involve actual surgical interventions that carry their own special risks and burdens. Unlike the relatively benign profile
Risk as analysis and risk as feelings: Some thoughts about affect, reason, risk, and rationality
- Risk Analysis
, 2004
"... Modern theories in cognitive psychology and neuroscience indicate that there are two fundamental ways in which human beings comprehend risk. The “analytic system ” uses algorithms and normative rules, such as the probability calculus, formal logic, and risk assessment. It is relatively slow, effortf ..."
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Cited by 234 (12 self)
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risk analysis tend to view affective responses to risk as irrational. Current wisdom disputes this view. The rational and the experiential systems operate in parallel and each seems to depend on the other for guidance. Studies have demonstrated that analytic reasoning cannot be effective unless
Timing Attacks on Implementations of Diffie-Hellman, RSA, DSS, and Other Systems
, 1996
"... By carefully measuring the amount of time required to perform private key operations, attackers may be able to find fixed Diffie-Hellman exponents, factor RSA keys, and break other cryptosystems. Against a vulnerable system, the attack is computationally inexpensive and often requires only known cip ..."
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Cited by 651 (3 self)
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ciphertext. Actual systems are potentially at risk, including cryptographic tokens, network-based cryptosystems, and other applications where attackers can make reasonably accurate timing measurements. Techniques for preventing the attack for RSA and Diffie-Hellman are presented. Some cryptosystems will need
Fuzzy extractors: How to generate strong keys from biometrics and other noisy data
, 2008
"... We provide formal definitions and efficient secure techniques for • turning noisy information into keys usable for any cryptographic application, and, in particular, • reliably and securely authenticating biometric data. Our techniques apply not just to biometric information, but to any keying mater ..."
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Cited by 535 (38 self)
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if the input changes, as long as it remains reasonably close to the original. Thus, R can be used as a key in a cryptographic application. A secure sketch produces public information about its input w that does not reveal w, and yet allows exact recovery of w given another value that is close to w. Thus
about Affect, Reason, Risk, and Rationality
"... Risk in the modern world is confronted and dealt with in three fundamental ways. Risk as feelings refers to our fast, instinctive, and intuitive reactions to danger. Risk as analysis brings logic, reason, and scientific deliberation to bear on hazard management. When our ancient ..."
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Risk in the modern world is confronted and dealt with in three fundamental ways. Risk as feelings refers to our fast, instinctive, and intuitive reactions to danger. Risk as analysis brings logic, reason, and scientific deliberation to bear on hazard management. When our ancient
Analyzing Incomplete Political Science Data: An Alternative Algorithm for Multiple Imputation
- American Political Science Review
, 2000
"... We propose a remedy for the discrepancy between the way political scientists analyze data with missing values and the recommendations of the statistics community. Methodologists and statisticians agree that "multiple imputation" is a superior approach to the problem of missing data scatter ..."
Abstract
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Cited by 419 (50 self)
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scattered through one's explanatory and dependent variables than the methods currently used in applied data analysis. The reason for this discrepancy lies with the fact that the computational algorithms used to apply the best multiple imputation models have been slow, difficult to implement, impossible
The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes.
- Journal of Finance
, 2001
"... ABSTRACT Using dealer's quotes and transactions prices on straight industrial bonds, we investigate the determinants of credit spread changes. Variables that should in theory determine credit spread changes have rather limited explanatory power. Further, the residuals from this regression are ..."
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Cited by 422 (2 self)
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changes. Below, we investigate the determinants of credit spread changes. From a contingent-claims, or noarbitrage standpoint, credit spreads obtain for two fundamental reasons: 1) there is a risk of default, and 2) in the event of default, the bondholder receives only a portion of the promised payments
Explaining African economic performance
- Journal of Economic Literature
, 1999
"... The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent. Acknowledgements: We would like to thank Anke Höffler for research assist ..."
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Cited by 367 (15 self)
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review and interpret the aggregate-level and microeconomic literatures to identify the key explanations for this performance. There is a reasonable correspondence of the two sets of evidence, pointing to four factors as being important. These are a lack of openness to international trade; a high-risk
Consumer acceptance of electronic commerce: Integrating trust and risk with the technology acceptance model
- International Journal of Electronic Commerce
, 2003
"... ABSTRACT: This paper aims to predict consumer acceptance of e-commerce by proposing a set of key drivers for engaging consumers in on-line transactions. The primary constructs for capturing consumer acceptance of e-commerce are intention to transact and on-line transaction behavior. Following the th ..."
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Cited by 320 (8 self)
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the theory of reasoned action (TRA) as applied to a technology-driven environment, technology acceptance model (TAM) variables (perceived usefulness and ease of use) are posited as key drivers of e-commerce acceptance. The practical utility of TAM stems from the fact that e-commerce is technology
Results 1 - 10
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10,213