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Investor psychology and asset pricing

by David Hirshleifer , 2001
"... The basic paradigm of asset pricing is in vibrant flux. The purely rational approach is being subsumed by a broader approach based upon the psychology of investors. In this approach, security expected returns are determined by both risk and misvaluation. This survey sketches a framework for understa ..."
Abstract - Cited by 420 (27 self) - Add to MetaCart
The basic paradigm of asset pricing is in vibrant flux. The purely rational approach is being subsumed by a broader approach based upon the psychology of investors. In this approach, security expected returns are determined by both risk and misvaluation. This survey sketches a framework

A unified theory of underreaction, momentum trading and overreaction in asset markets

by Harrison Hong, Jeremy C. Stein , 1999
"... We model a market populated by two groups of boundedly rational agents: “newswatchers” and “momentum traders.” Each newswatcher observes some private information, but fails to extract other newswatchers’ information from prices. If information diffuses gradually across the population, prices underre ..."
Abstract - Cited by 606 (33 self) - Add to MetaCart
We model a market populated by two groups of boundedly rational agents: “newswatchers” and “momentum traders.” Each newswatcher observes some private information, but fails to extract other newswatchers’ information from prices. If information diffuses gradually across the population, prices

Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test

by Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay - REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES , 1988
"... In this article we test the random walk hypothesis for weekly stock market returns by comparing variance estimators derived from data sampled at different frequencies. The random walk model is strongly rejected for the entire sample period (1962--1985) and for all subperiod for a variety of aggrega ..."
Abstract - Cited by 517 (17 self) - Add to MetaCart
not support a mean-reverting model of asset prices.

Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets

by J. Bradford De Long, Andrei Shleifer, Lawrence H. Summers, Robert J. Waldmann , 1989
"... We present a simple overlapping generations model of an asset market in which irrational noise traders with erroneous stochastic beliefs both affect prices and earn higher expected returns. The unpredictability of noise traders ’ beliefs creates a risk in the price of the asset that deters rational ..."
Abstract - Cited by 894 (25 self) - Add to MetaCart
We present a simple overlapping generations model of an asset market in which irrational noise traders with erroneous stochastic beliefs both affect prices and earn higher expected returns. The unpredictability of noise traders ’ beliefs creates a risk in the price of the asset that deters rational

Credit Cycles

by Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, John Moore - Journal of Political Economy , 1997
"... We construct a model of a dynamic economy in which lenders cannot force borrowers to repay their debts unless the debts are secured. In such an economy, durable assets play a dual role: not only are they factors of production, but they also serve as collateral for loans. The dynamic interaction betw ..."
Abstract - Cited by 1673 (38 self) - Add to MetaCart
between credit limits and asset prices turns out to be a powerful transmission mechanism by which the effects of shocks persist, amplify, and spill over to other sectors. We show that small, temporary shocks to technology or income distribution can generate large, persistent fluctuations in output

The relationship between return and market value of common stocks

by Rolf W. Banz - Journal of Financial Economics , 1981
"... This study examines the empirical relattonship between the return and the total market value of NYSE common stocks. It is found that smaller firms have had htgher risk adjusted returns, on average, than larger lirms. This ‘size effect ’ has been in existence for at least forty years and is evidence ..."
Abstract - Cited by 791 (0 self) - Add to MetaCart
that the capital asset pricing model is misspecttied. The size elfect is not linear in the market value; the main effect occurs for very small tirms while there is little difference m return between average sized and large firms. It IS not known whether size per se is responsible for the effect or whether size

A theory of the term structure of interest rates,

by John C Cox , Jonathan E Ingersoll Jr , Stephen A Ross , John C Cox , JR Jonathan E Ingersoll , Stephen A Ross - Econometrika, , 1985
"... Each copy of any part of a JSTOR transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printed page of such transmission. JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted d ..."
Abstract - Cited by 1979 (3 self) - Add to MetaCart
. Ross This paper uses an intertemporal general equilibrium asset pricing model to study the term structure of interest rates. In this model, anticipations, risk aversion, investment alternatives, and preferences about the timing of consumption all play a role in determining bond prices. Many

Heterogeneous Beliefs and Routes to Chaos in a Simple Asset Pricing Model

by William A. Brock, Cars H. Hommes , 1998
"... This paper investigates the dynamics in a simple present discounted value asset pricing model with heterogeneous beliefs. Agents choose from a finite set of predictors of future prices of a risky asset and revise their `beliefs' in each period in a boundedly rational way, according to a `fitnes ..."
Abstract - Cited by 385 (27 self) - Add to MetaCart
This paper investigates the dynamics in a simple present discounted value asset pricing model with heterogeneous beliefs. Agents choose from a finite set of predictors of future prices of a risky asset and revise their `beliefs' in each period in a boundedly rational way, according to a

Conditional skewness in asset pricing tests

by Campbell R. Harvey, Akhtar Siddique - Journal of Finance , 2000
"... If asset returns have systematic skewness, expected returns should include rewards for accepting this risk. We formalize this intuition with an asset pricing model that incorporates conditional skewness. Our results show that conditional skewness helps explain the cross-sectional variation of expect ..."
Abstract - Cited by 342 (6 self) - Add to MetaCart
If asset returns have systematic skewness, expected returns should include rewards for accepting this risk. We formalize this intuition with an asset pricing model that incorporates conditional skewness. Our results show that conditional skewness helps explain the cross-sectional variation

Asset pricing under endogenous expectations in an artificial stock market

by W. Brian Arthur, John H. Holland, Blake LeBaron, Richard Palmer, Paul Tayler , 1996
"... We propose a theory of asset pricing based on heterogeneous agents who continually adapt their expectations to the market that these expectations aggregatively create. And we explore the implications of this theory computationally using our Santa Fe artificial stock market. Asset markets, we argue, ..."
Abstract - Cited by 303 (20 self) - Add to MetaCart
We propose a theory of asset pricing based on heterogeneous agents who continually adapt their expectations to the market that these expectations aggregatively create. And we explore the implications of this theory computationally using our Santa Fe artificial stock market. Asset markets, we argue
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