We present a simple overlapping generations model of an asset market in which irrational noise traders with erroneous stochastic beliefs both affect prices and earn higher expected returns. The unpredictability of noise traders ’ beliefs creates a risk in the price of the asset that deters rational

We propose a measure of capital market integration arising from a conditional regime-switching model. Our measure allows us to describe expected returns in countries that are segmented from world capital markets in one part of the sample and become integrated later in the sample. We find that a

A ‘long memory ’ property of stock market returns is investigated in this paper. It is found that not only there is substantially more correlation between absolute returns than returns them-selves, but the power transformation of the absolute return lrfl ” also has quite high autocorrel-ation

The sphere of modern financial economics encompases finance, micro investment theory and much of the economics of uncertainty. As is evident from its influence on other branches of economics including public finance, industrial organization and monetary theory, the boundaries of this sphere are both permeable and flexible. The complex interactions of time and uncertainty guarantee intellectual challenge and intrinsic excitement to the study of financial economics. Indeed, the mathematics of the subject contain some of the most interesting applications of probability and optimization theory. But for all its mathematical refinement, the research has nevertheless had a direct and significant influence on practice. It was not always thus. Thirty years ago, finance theory was little more than a collection of anecdotes, rules of thumb, and manipulations of accounting data with an almost exclusive focus on corporate financial management. There is no need in this meeting of the guild to recount the subsequent evolution from this conceptual potpourri to a rigorous economic

The insight of Arrow [4] and Debreu [7] that uncertainty is easily incor-porated into general equilibrium models is double-edged. It is true that one need only index commodities by the state of nature, and classical results on the existence and optimality of competitive equilibria can be made to

Marketing inherited a model of exchange from economics, which had a dominant logic based on the exchange of “goods, ” which usually are manufactured output. The dominant logic focused on tangible resources, embedded value, and transactions. Over the past several decades, new perspectives have

that the capital asset pricing model is misspecttied. The size elfect is not linear in the market value; the main effect occurs for very small tirms while there is little difference m return between average sized and large firms. It IS not known whether size per se is responsible for the effect or whether size

and the explanatory power of the market model for a typical stock have declined, whereas the number of stocks needed to achieve a given level of diversification has increased. All the volatility measures move together countercyclically and help to predict GDP growth. Market volatility tends to lead the other

We model a market populated by two groups of boundedly rational agents: “newswatchers” and “momentum traders.” Each newswatcher observes some private information, but fails to extract other newswatchers’ information from prices. If information diffuses gradually across the population, prices

return adds the historical average realized excess market returns to the current observed interest rate. While this model explicitly reflects the dependence of the market return on the interest rate, it fails to account for the effect of changes in the level of market risk. Three models of equilibrium