We model consumption and dividend growth rates as containing (i) a small long-run predictable component and (ii) fluctuating economic uncertainty (consumption volatility). These dynamics, for which we provide empirical support, in conjunction with Epstein and Zin’s (1989) preferences, can explain

returns are negatively related over time to contemporaneous unexpected illiquidity. The illiquidity measure here is the average across stocks of the daily ratio of absolute stock return to dollar volume, which is easily obtained from daily stock data for long time series in most stock markets. Illiquidity

This paper uses the method of kinematic waves, developed in part I, but may be read independently. A functional relationship between flow and concentration for traffic on crowded arterial roads has been postulated for some time, and has experimental backing (? 2). From this a theory

We present the first algorithms that allow the estimation of non-negative Lyapunov exponents from an experimental time series. Lyapunov exponents, which provide a qualitative and quantitative characterization of dynamical behavior, are related to the exponentially fast divergence or convergence

heavy tails for in- and out-degree distributions, communities, small-world phenomena, and others. However, given the lack of information about network evolution over long periods, it has been hard to convert these findings into statements about trends over time. Here we study a wide range of real graphs

We examine properties of residual-based tests for the null of no cointegration for dynamic panels in which both the short-run dynamics and the long-run slope coefficients are permitted to be heterogeneous across individual members of the panel+ The tests also allow for individual heterogeneous

The construction of a 0.58 lat 3 0.58 long surface climatology of global land areas, excluding Antarctica, is described. The climatology represents the period 1961–90 and comprises a suite of nine variables: precipitation, wet-day frequency, mean temperature, diurnal temperature range, vapor

"Recurrent backprop" for learning to store information over extended time intervals takes too long. The main reason is insufficient, decaying error back flow. We briefly review Hochreiter's 1991 analysis of this problem. Then we overcome it by introducing a novel, efficient method

this paper we first discuss the wire metrics of interest and examine them in a contemporary 0.25m process. We then discuss technology scaling over the next several generations, from SIA and other predictions, and how our wire metrics trend over that time. We will examine the delay and bandwidth

Spec# is the latest in a long line of work on programming languages and systems aimed at improving the development of correct software. This paper describes the goals and architecture of the Spec# programming system, consisting of the object-oriented Spec# programming language, the Spec