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From Data Mining to Knowledge Discovery in Databases.

by Usama Fayyad , Gregory Piatetsky-Shapiro , Padhraic Smyth - AI Magazine, , 1996
"... ■ Data mining and knowledge discovery in databases have been attracting a significant amount of research, industry, and media attention of late. What is all the excitement about? This article provides an overview of this emerging field, clarifying how data mining and knowledge discovery in database ..."
Abstract - Cited by 538 (0 self) - Add to MetaCart
predictive model for estimating the value of future cases). At the core of the process is the application of specific data-mining methods for pattern discovery and extraction. 1 This article begins by discussing the historical context of KDD and data mining and their intersection with other related fields. A

The Ant System: Optimization by a colony of cooperating agents

by Marco Dorigo, Vittorio Maniezzo, Alberto Colorni - IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SYSTEMS, MAN, AND CYBERNETICS-PART B , 1996
"... An analogy with the way ant colonies function has suggested the definition of a new computational paradigm, which we call Ant System. We propose it as a viable new approach to stochastic combinatorial optimization. The main characteristics of this model are positive feedback, distributed computation ..."
Abstract - Cited by 1300 (46 self) - Add to MetaCart
computation, and the use of a constructive greedy heuristic. Positive feedback accounts for rapid discovery of good solutions, distributed computation avoids premature convergence, and the greedy heuristic helps find acceptable solutions in the early stages of the search process. We apply the proposed

Variable Selection via Nonconcave Penalized Likelihood and its Oracle Properties

by Jianqing Fan , Runze Li , 2001
"... Variable selection is fundamental to high-dimensional statistical modeling, including nonparametric regression. Many approaches in use are stepwise selection procedures, which can be computationally expensive and ignore stochastic errors in the variable selection process. In this article, penalized ..."
Abstract - Cited by 948 (62 self) - Add to MetaCart
Variable selection is fundamental to high-dimensional statistical modeling, including nonparametric regression. Many approaches in use are stepwise selection procedures, which can be computationally expensive and ignore stochastic errors in the variable selection process. In this article, penalized

Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts

by Torben G. Andersen, Tim Bollerslev
"... Volatility permeates modern financial theories and decision making processes. As such, accurate measures and good forecasts of future volatility are critical for the implementation and evaluation of asset and derivative pricing theories as well as trading and hedging strategies. In response to this, ..."
Abstract - Cited by 561 (45 self) - Add to MetaCart
, a voluminous literature has emerged for modeling the temporal dependencies in financial market volatility at the daily and lower frequencies using ARCH and stochastic volatility type models. Most of these studies find highly significant in-sample parameter estimates and pronounced intertemporal

Segmentation of brain MR images through a hidden Markov random field model and the expectation-maximization algorithm

by Yongyue Zhang, Michael Brady, Stephen Smith - IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON MEDICAL. IMAGING , 2001
"... The finite mixture (FM) model is the most commonly used model for statistical segmentation of brain magnetic resonance (MR) images because of its simple mathematical form and the piecewise constant nature of ideal brain MR images. However, being a histogram-based model, the FM has an intrinsic limi ..."
Abstract - Cited by 639 (15 self) - Add to MetaCart
-based methods produce unreliable results. In this paper, we propose a novel hidden Markov random field (HMRF) model, which is a stochastic process generated by a MRF whose state sequence cannot be observed directly but which can be indirectly estimated through observations. Mathematically, it can be shown

Illusion and well-being: A social psychological perspective on mental health.

by Shelley E Taylor , Jonathon D Brown , Nancy Cantor , Edward Emery , Susan Fiske , Tony Green-Wald , Connie Hammen , Darrin Lehman , Chuck Mcclintock , Dick Nisbett , Lee Ross , Bill Swann , Joanne - Psychological Bulletin, , 1988
"... Many prominent theorists have argued that accurate perceptions of the self, the world, and the future are essential for mental health. Yet considerable research evidence suggests that overly positive selfevaluations, exaggerated perceptions of control or mastery, and unrealistic optimism are charac ..."
Abstract - Cited by 988 (20 self) - Add to MetaCart
both the social world and cognitive-processing mechanisms impose niters on incoming information that distort it in a positive direction; negative information may be isolated and represented in as unthreatening a manner as possible. These positive illusions may be especially useful when an individual

Testing for Common Trends

by James H. Stock, Mark W. Watson - Journal of the American Statistical Association , 1988
"... Cointegrated multiple time series share at least one common trend. Two tests are developed for the number of common stochastic trends (i.e., for the order of cointegration) in a multiple time series with and without drift. Both tests involve the roots of the ordinary least squares coefficient matrix ..."
Abstract - Cited by 464 (7 self) - Add to MetaCart
similar. The firstest (qf) is developed under the assumption that certain components of the process have a finite-order vector autoregressive (VAR) representation, and the nuisance parameters are handled by estimating this VAR. The second test (q,) entails computing the eigenvalues of a corrected sample

Simple statistical gradient-following algorithms for connectionist reinforcement learning

by Ronald J. Williams - Machine Learning , 1992
"... Abstract. This article presents a general class of associative reinforcement learning algorithms for connectionist networks containing stochastic units. These algorithms, called REINFORCE algorithms, are shown to make weight adjustments in a direction that lies along the gradient of expected reinfor ..."
Abstract - Cited by 449 (0 self) - Add to MetaCart
Abstract. This article presents a general class of associative reinforcement learning algorithms for connectionist networks containing stochastic units. These algorithms, called REINFORCE algorithms, are shown to make weight adjustments in a direction that lies along the gradient of expected

Policy gradient methods for reinforcement learning with function approximation.

by Richard S Sutton , David Mcallester , Satinder Singh , Yishay Mansour - In NIPS, , 1999
"... Abstract Function approximation is essential to reinforcement learning, but the standard approach of approximating a value function and determining a policy from it has so far proven theoretically intractable. In this paper we explore an alternative approach in which the policy is explicitly repres ..."
Abstract - Cited by 439 (20 self) - Add to MetaCart
that the gradient can be written in a form suitable for estimation from experience aided by an approximate action-value or advantage function. Using this result, we prove for the first time that a version of policy iteration with arbitrary differentiable function approximation is convergent to a locally optimal

The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes.

by Pierre Collin-Dufresne , Robert S Goldstein , J Spencer Martin , Gurdip Bakshi , Greg Bauer , Dave Brown , Francesca Carrieri , Peter Christoffersen , Susan Christoffersen , Greg Duffee , Darrell Duffie , Vihang Errunza , Gifford Fong , Mike Gallmeyer , Laurent Gauthier , Rick Green , John Griffin , Jean Helwege , Kris Jacobs , Chris Jones , Andrew Karolyi , Dilip Madan , David Mauer , Erwan Morellec , Federico Nardari , N R Prabhala , Tony Sanders , Sergei Sarkissian , Bill Schwert , Ken Singleton , Chester Spatt , René Stulz - Journal of Finance , 2001
"... ABSTRACT Using dealer's quotes and transactions prices on straight industrial bonds, we investigate the determinants of credit spread changes. Variables that should in theory determine credit spread changes have rather limited explanatory power. Further, the residuals from this regression are ..."
Abstract - Cited by 422 (2 self) - Add to MetaCart
with changes in credit spreads. We discuss these proposed determinants individually. Changes in the Spot Rate As pointed out by Longstaff and Schwartz (1995), the static effect of a higher spot rate is to increase the risk-neutral drift of the firm value process. A higher drift reduces the incidence of default
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