We describe the transferable belief model, a model for representing quantified beliefs based on belief functions. Beliefs can be held at two levels: (1) a credal level where beliefs are entertained and quantified by belief functions, (2) a pignistic level where beliefs can be used to make decisions

Belief networks are directed acyclic graphs in which the nodes represent propositions (or variables), the arcs signify direct dependencies between the linked propositions, and the strengths of these dependencies are quantified by conditional probabilities. A network of this sort can be used

Recently, researchers have demonstrated that "loopy belief propagation" --- the use of Pearl's polytree algorithm in a Bayesian network with loops --- can perform well in the context of error-correcting codes. The most dramatic instance of this is the near Shannon

Abstract not found

Intentions, an integral part of the mental state of an agent, play an important role in

This paper investigates the dynamics in a simple present discounted value asset pricing model with heterogeneous beliefs. Agents choose from a finite set of predictors of future prices of a risky asset and revise their `beliefs' in each period in a boundedly rational way, according to a

WestudyRational Expectationsequilibriaindynamicmodels withdispersedinformation andsignal extraction from endogenous variables. Existence and uniqueness conditions for a new class of rational expectations equilibria in economies with dispersed information are established. The novelty of this class

revision, belief merging and voting

This is the manuscript that was published, with only minor copy-editing alterations, as: Haidt, J. (2001). The emotional dog and its rational tail: A social intuitionist approach to moral judgment. Psychological Review. 108, 814-834 Copyright 2001, American Psychological Association To obtain a

We present a simple overlapping generations model of an asset market in which irrational noise traders with erroneous stochastic beliefs both affect prices and earn higher expected returns. The unpredictability of noise traders ’ beliefs creates a risk in the price of the asset that deters rational