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1 Random Fuzzy Extension of the Universal Generating Function Approach for the Availability/Reliability Assessment of Multi-State Systems under Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties
"... Abstracts Many engineering systems can perform their intended tasks with various levels of performance, which are modeled as multi-state systems (MSS) for system availability/reliability assessment problems. Uncertainty is an unavoidable factor in MSS modeling and it must be effectively handled. In ..."
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. In this work, we extend the traditional universal generating function (UGF) approach for multi-state system (MSS) availability/reliability assessment to account for both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. First, a theoretical extension, named hybrid UGF (HUGF), is made to introduce the use of random fuzzy
Successful Delivery of Infrastructural Projects: Epistemic Overview of Cost Risk and Uncertainties
"... Abstract: The process of decision making and risk analysis are essential tasks along the construction project cycle. Over the years, construction practitioners and researchers have used various methods, tools and techniques to evaluate risk and assist in making more concise decisions. Most practitio ..."
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sciences. Practitioners traditionally deal with aleatory uncertainty through probabilistic analysis based on historical data (frequentist approach); and epistemic uncertainty, on the other hand, handled through the Bayesian approach which has limitations since it requires a priori assumption. This paper
Their Combination with the Level 1 PSA Uncertainties Kwang-Il Ahn*
"... As an essential part of the Level 2 PSA, a probabilistic treatment of complex phenomenological accident pathways inevitably leads to two sources of uncertainty: (a) an incomplete modeling of these accident pathways and their subsequent impacts on the Level 2 risk, and (b) an expert-toexpert variatio ..."
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-toexpert variation in the their probabilistic estimates. While the former type of uncertainty is epistemic in nature from the viewpoint that we deal with an uncertainty addressed in the deterministic events, the latter type is a random/aleatory uncertainty. The impacts of the preceding sources of uncertainty
Improved Modelling and Assessment of the Performance of Firefighting Means in the Frame of a Fire PSA
"... An integrated deterministic and probabilistic safety analysis (IDPSA) was carried out to assess the performances of the firefighting means to be applied in a nuclear power plant. The tools used in the analysis are the code FDS (Fire Dynamics Simulator) for fire simulation and the tool MCDET (Monte ..."
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Carlo Dynamic Event Tree) for handling epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. The combination of both tools allowed for an improved modelling of a fire interacting with firefighting means while epistemic uncertainties because lack of knowledge and aleatory uncertainties due to the stochastic aspects
FUZZY STOCHASTIC COST AND SCHEDULE RISK ANALYSIS: MOB CASE STUDY
"... The Office of Naval Research in a feasibility study of a Mobile Offshore Base (MOB) has proposed several concepts for very large ocean structures and will make risk informed assessments of alternative concepts. Using the MOB as a case study, this paper provides a methodology for cost and schedule ri ..."
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risk-based decision analysis of alternative MOB hull construction concepts. During risk analysis, cognitive, vague or aleatory uncertainty can be handled using fuzzy sets and logic in many modeling scenarios. Stochastic modeling and analysis is mandated in cases of probabilistic, ambiguous or epistemic
Abstracts
, 2013
"... Many engineering systems can perform their intended tasks with various levels of performance, which are modeled as multi-state systems (MSS) for system availability/reliability assessment problems. Uncertainty is an unavoidable factor in MSS modeling and it must be effectively handled. In this work, ..."
Abstract
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, we extend the traditional universal generating function (UGF) approach for multi-state system (MSS) availability/reliability assessment to account for both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. First, a theoretical extension, named hybrid UGF (HUGF), is made to introduce the use of random fuzzy
