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2003: Climatological analysis of tornado report counts using a hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal Model
- J. Geophys. Res
"... Recent evidence suggests that tornado report counts for monthly or longer peri-ods may be correlated to climate indices in space and time. However, climatologi-cal analysis of tornado reports is complicated by reporting errors, the non-Gaussian nature of count data and rare events, and the presence ..."
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Cited by 10 (3 self)
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Recent evidence suggests that tornado report counts for monthly or longer peri-ods may be correlated to climate indices in space and time. However, climatologi-cal analysis of tornado reports is complicated by reporting errors, the non-Gaussian nature of count data and rare events, and the presence
Daily tornado frequency distributions in the United States
, 2014
"... The authors examine daily tornado counts in the United States over the period 1994–2012 and find strong evidence for a power-law relationship in the distribution frequency. The scaling exponent is estimated at 1.64 (0.019 s.e.) giving a per tornado-day probability of 0.014% (return period of 71 year ..."
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The authors examine daily tornado counts in the United States over the period 1994–2012 and find strong evidence for a power-law relationship in the distribution frequency. The scaling exponent is estimated at 1.64 (0.019 s.e.) giving a per tornado-day probability of 0.014% (return period of 71
A Markov Chain Model of Tornadic Activity
- Mon. Wea. Rev
"... Tornadic activity in four U.S. regions is stochastically modeled based on data on tornado counts over the years 1953--1998. It is shown that tornadic activity on a given day is mostly affected by the activity on the previous day. ..."
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Tornadic activity in four U.S. regions is stochastically modeled based on data on tornado counts over the years 1953--1998. It is shown that tornadic activity on a given day is mostly affected by the activity on the previous day.
RESEARCH ARTICLE A Statistical Model for Regional Tornado Climate Studies
"... Tornado reports are locally rare, often clustered, and of variable quality making it difficult to use them directly to describe regional tornado climatology. Here a statistical model is demon-strated that overcomes some of these difficulties and produces a smoothed regional-scale climatology of torn ..."
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of tornado occurrences. The model is applied to data aggregated at the level of counties. These data include annual population, annual tornado counts and an index of ter-rain roughness. The model has a term to capture the smoothed frequency relative to the state average. Themodel is used to examine whether
MAY 1953 MONTHLY WEATHER, REVIEW 135 THE WEATHER AND CIRCULATION OF MAY 1953l- One of the Worst Tornado Months on Record
"... In many sections of the United States the weather of May 1953 was notable for severe thunderstorm activity and accompanying phenomena: torrential rainfall, local floods, huge hailstones, destructive winds, and devastating tornadoes. Most spectacular were the destructive tornadoes which occurred main ..."
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, but the total number of tornadoes ieported during May 1953 was 113, the greatest number for any month of the entire period of record commencing in 1916 [l]. It must be pointed out though that strict comparison with tornado counts for earlier years may
Geography Compass 9/4 (2015): 157–168, 10.1111/gec3.12205New Methods in Tornado Climatology
"... How climate change might affect tornadoes remains an open scientific question. Climatological studies are often contested due to inconsistencies in the available data. Statistical methods are used to overcome some of the data limitations. A few of these methods including using the proportion of torn ..."
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of tornadoes occur-ring on big tornado days, estimating tornado energy from the damage path, and modeling counts spatially are described here. The methods move beyond analyses of occurrences by damage ratings and spatial smoothing. Applications of these and related methods will help grow the nascent field
M 2014 Predicting spring tornado activity in the central Great Plains by March 1st Mon
- Weather Rev
"... The authors illustrate a statistical model for predicting tornado activity in the central Great Plains by 1 March. The model predicts the number of tornado reports during April–June using February sea surface temperature (SST) data from the Gulf of Alaska (GAK) and the western Caribbean Sea (WCA). T ..."
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Cited by 1 (1 self)
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). The model uses a Bayesian formulation where the likelihood on the counts is a negative binomial distribution and where the nonstationarity in tornado reporting is included as a trend term plus first-order autocorrelation. Posterior densities for the model parameters are generated using the method
Spatiotemporal Changes in Tornado Hazard Exposure: The Case of the Expanding Bull’s-Eye Effect in Chicago, Illinois
, 2013
"... Exposure has amplified rapidly over the past half century and is one of the primary drivers of increases in disaster frequency and consequences. Previous research on exposure change detection has proven limited since the geographic units of aggregation for decennial censuses, the sole measure of acc ..."
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of accurate historical population and housing counts, vary from one census to the next. To address this shortcoming, this research produces a set of gridded population and housing data for the Chicago, Illinois, region to evaluate the concept of the ‘‘expanding bull’s-eye effect.’ ’ This effect argues
Impact #354 SHAPES, NUMBERS, PATTERNS, AND THE DIVINE PROPORTION IN GOD’S CREATION
, 2002
"... In God’s creation, there exists a “Divine Proportion ” that is exhibited in a multitude of shapes, numbers, and patterns whose relationship can only be the result of the omnipotent, good, and all-wise God of Scripture. This Divine Proportion—existing in the smallest to the largest parts, in living a ..."
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fern leaves, DNA molecule, waves breaking on the beach, tornados, galaxies, the tail of a comet as it winds around the sun, whirlpools, seed patterns of sunflowers, daisies, dandelions, and in the construction of the ears of most mammals. This spiral follows a precise mathematical pattern. We
Results 1 - 10
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12
