The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation

Document de travail de la série

1 Developing Capacities for Professionalism, Integrity, and Ethics (PIE) to prevent

Note The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning

The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning

World population may ultimately stabilize at between 8 and 9 billion people after 2200. This is one of the results of the most recent long-range projections prepared by the United Nations

The views expressed herein are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board or its management. ha ls hs

1 summarizes the main assumptions and certain results of the population projection for Russia for the years 2000 to 2050. The purpose of this projection was not to predict, with a maximum possible confidence, how the country’s population size and age composition will actually vary in the nearest 50 years, but rather to examine the paths of such changes in accordance with certain, more or less feasible, scenarios of demographic developments. 1. Three groups of scenarios The 12 proposed scenarios are divided into three groups: • Group I: Scenarios with a zero net migration. This group of scenarios permits to estimate the possibilities of the population increase and potential changes in its age composition entirely as a result of an interaction between fertility and mortality. The Group I scenarios show that, under any somewhat realistic assumptions with regard to these two processes, a natural increase in the population of Russia will be negative during the nearest 50 years, while the population size will steadily decrease. • Group II: Scenarios with a constant population size across the whole 2000 –

part of the United Nations Secretariat.

The designations employed and the presentation of the material in the present report do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning