McCombs School of Business; The University of Texas at Austin; CBA 4.202
SVM HeaderParse 0.2
AUTHOR ADDR
Austin, TX 78712
SVM HeaderParse 0.2
AUTHOR NAME
Mary J. Benner
SVM HeaderParse 0.2
AUTHOR AFFIL
The Wharton School; University of Pennsylvania
SVM HeaderParse 0.2
AUTHOR ADDR
2010 Steinberg Hall-Dietrich Hall; Philadelphia, PA 19104-6370
SVM HeaderParse 0.2
ABSTRACT
Despite much research, debate continues about the impact of risk taking on a firm’s future performance. Unlike prior studies, we propose that risk-return relationships evolve as firms age and learn, particularly in high-velocity settings where accumulated knowledge affects how firms respond to technological change. Discerning this requires three things absent from prior analyses: (1) studying an entire population; (2) modeling evolutionary processes; and (3) using separate models to capture how a firm’s gains and losses (i.e., its strong and weak performances) unfold across time. Using this framework, we found that (a) risk-return relationships generally evolved from positive to negative as firms aged; because (b) firms learned to avoid large losses at younger ages than they learned to sustain large gains; yet (c) the risk taking that followed below-aspiration performance moderated those effects such that major setbacks prompted large future gains and large future losses among older firms and downward spirals among younger ones. 1 Relationships between risk and return are central to our lives. In the hope of emotional or monetary rewards, some people take risks by climbing mountains, changing employers, or switching careers. Some executives take risks in pursuit of better pay and enhanced reputations, and some firms pursue risky strategies in a quest for higher sales and profits.