Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach

Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach (2004)

by Edward Miguel , Shanker Satyanath , Ernest Sergenti

Venue:	Journal of Political Economy
Citations:	66 - 1 self

Datum	Value	Source
TITLE	Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach	SVM HeaderParse 0.2
AUTHOR NAME	Edward Miguel	SVM HeaderParse 0.2
AUTHOR AFFIL	University of California, Berkeley and National Bureau of Economic Research	SVM HeaderParse 0.2
AUTHOR NAME	Shanker Satyanath	SVM HeaderParse 0.2
AUTHOR AFFIL	New York University	SVM HeaderParse 0.2
AUTHOR NAME	Ernest Sergenti	SVM HeaderParse 0.2
AUTHOR AFFIL	New York University	SVM HeaderParse 0.2
ABSTRACT	Estimating the impact of economic conditions on the likelihood of civil conflict is difficult because of endogeneity and omitted variable bias. We use rainfall variation as an instrumental variable for economic growth in 41 African countries during 1981–99. Growth is strongly negatively related to civil conflict: a negative growth shock of five percentage points increases the likelihood of conflict by one-half the following year. We attempt to rule out other channels through which rainfall may affect conflict. Surprisingly, the impact of growth shocks on conflict is not significantly different in richer, more democratic, or more ethnically diverse countries. I.	SVM HeaderParse 0.2
YEAR	2004	INFERENCE
VENUE	Journal of Political Economy	INFERENCE
VENUE TYPE	JOURNAL	INFERENCE
PAGES	725--753	INFERENCE
CITATIONS	43 found	ParsCit 1.0