## Is probability the only coherent approach to uncertainty?, Risk Analysis, forthcoming

Citations: | 3 - 1 self |

### BibTeX

@MISC{Colyvan_isprobability,

author = {Mark Colyvan},

title = {Is probability the only coherent approach to uncertainty?, Risk Analysis, forthcoming},

year = {}

}

### OpenURL

### Abstract

In this paper I discuss an argument that purports to prove that probability theory is the only sensible means of dealing with uncertainty. I show that this argument can succeed only if some rather controversial assumptions about the nature of uncertainty are accepted. I discuss these assumptions and provide reasons for rejecting them. I also present examples of what I take to be non-probabilistic uncertainty. Key Words: Cox’s Theorem, Non-Classical Logic, Probability, Uncertainty, Vagueness Uncertainties are ubiquitous in risk analysis and on the face of it, we must contend with a number of quite distinct sorts of uncertainty. There are, of course, many methods on hand to deal with uncertainty, so it is important to select the method best suited to the uncertainty in question. There is, however, a growing push towards dealing with all uncertainty in one fell swoop. That is, it is thought to be desirable to employ a single method capable of quantifying all sources of uncertainty. One candidate for this task is probability theory. For such a program to succeed, a demonstration that all uncertainty is,