Abstract

this paper, we demonstrate how their ecient likelihood expression can facilitate Bayesian analyses of these kinds of data and extend their methodology to provide a formal framework for model determination. We consider in detail the issue of model selection with respect to a set of recapture/recovery histories of shags (Phalacrocorax aristotelis) and determine, from the enormous range of biologically plausible models available, which best describe the data. By using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methodology we demonstrate how this enormous model space can be eciently and eectively explored, without having to resort to performing an infeasibly large number of pairwise comparisons or some ad-hoc stepwise procedure. We nd that the model used by Catchpole et al. (1998) has essentially zero posterior probability and that of the 477,144 possible models considered, over 60% of the posterior mass is placed upon three neighbouring models with biologically interesting interpretations

Citations