Abstract

We present a Bayesian framework for inferring the parameters of a mixture of experts model based on ensemble learning by variational free energy minimisation. The Bayesian approach avoids the over-fitting and noise level under-estimation problems of traditional maximum likelihood inference. We demonstrate these methods on artificial problems and sunspot time series prediction. INTRODUCTION The task of estimating the parameters of adaptive models such as artificial neural networks using Maximum Likelihood (ML) is well documented eg. Geman, Bienenstock

Citations