Abstract

<F4.554e+05> Epidemiologic methods were developed to prove general causation: identifying exposures that increase the risk of particular diseases. Courts often are more interested in specific causation: on balance of probabilities, was the plainti#'s disease caused by exposure to the agent in question? Some authorities have suggested that a relative risk greater than 2.0 meets the standard of proof for specific causation. Such a definite criterion is appealing, but there are di#culties. Bias and confounding are familiar problems; individual di#erences must be considered too. The issues are explored in the context of the swine flu vaccine and Guillain-Barre syndrome. The conclusion: there is a considerable gap between relative risks and proof of specific causation.<F4.051e+05> 1. Introduction<F4.554e+05> In a toxic tort case, the plainti# is exposed to a toxic agent, su#ers injury, and sues. To win, the plainti# must prove (i) "general causation" (the agent is capable of producing th...

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