## Inference from a Deterministic Population Dynamics Model for Bowhead Whales (1995)

Venue: | Journal of the American Statistical Association |

Citations: | 41 - 21 self |

### BibTeX

@ARTICLE{Raftery95inferencefrom,

author = {Adrian E. Raftery and Geof H. Givens and Judith E. Zeh},

title = {Inference from a Deterministic Population Dynamics Model for Bowhead Whales},

journal = {Journal of the American Statistical Association},

year = {1995},

volume = {90},

pages = {90--402}

}

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### OpenURL

### Abstract

We consider the problem of inference about a quantity of interest given different sources of information linked by a deterministic population dynamics model. Our approach consists of translating all the available information into a joint pre-model distribution on all the model inputs and outputs, and then restricting this to the submanifold defined by the model to obtain the joint post-model distribution. Marginalizing this yields inference, conditional on the model, about quantities of interest which can be functions of model inputs, model outputs, or both. Samples from the postmodel distribution are obtained by importance sampling and Rubin's SIR algorithm. The framework includes as a special case the situation where the pre-model information about the outputs consists of measurements with error; this reduces to standard Bayesian inference. The results are in the form of a sample from the post-model distribution and so can be examined using the full range of exploratory data analysis...