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26 From Diversity to Volatility: Probability of Daily Precipitation Extremes
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BibTeX
@MISC{Panorska_26from,
author = {Anna K. Panorska and Er Gershunov and Tomasz J. Kozubowski},
title = {26 From Diversity to Volatility: Probability of Daily Precipitation Extremes},
year = {}
}
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Abstract
Abstract. A sensible stochastic model is required to correctly estimate the risk associated with daily precipitation extremes. The same requirement holds for studying high-frequency precipitation extremes in the context of climate variability and change. Results derived from probability theory were used to develop an efficient automated scheme to distinguish between heavy and exponential precipitation probability density function (PDF) tails in hundreds of daily station records spanning five decades over the North American continent. These results suggest that, at a vast majority of the stations, daily extreme precipitation probabilities do not decay exponentially, but more closely follow a power law. This means that statistical distributions traditionally used to model daily rainfall (e.g. exponential, Weibull, Gamma, lognormal) generally underestimate the probabilities of extremes. The degree of this distortion, i.e. volatility, depends on regional and seasonal climatic peculiarities. By examining geographical and seasonal patterns in extreme precipitation behavior, the authors show that the degree of volatility is determined regionally by the diversity in precipitationproducing mechanisms, or storm type diversity. Exponential tails are geographically limited to regions where precipitation falls almost exclusively from similar meteorological systems and
Keyphrases
daily precipitation extreme climate variability exponential precipitation probability density function seasonal pattern daily extreme precipitation probability statistical distribution daily rainfall sensible stochastic model high-frequency precipitation extreme exponential tail power law seasonal climatic peculiarity vast majority extreme precipitation behavior daily station record probability theory type diversity north american continent similar meteorological system
