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Manipulation of the running variable in the regression discontinuity design: A density test (2008)
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| Venue: | Journal of Econometrics 142 |
| Citations: | 316 - 6 self |
BibTeX
@ARTICLE{Mccrary08manipulationof,
author = {Justin Mccrary},
title = {Manipulation of the running variable in the regression discontinuity design: A density test},
journal = {Journal of Econometrics 142},
year = {2008},
pages = {714}
}
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Abstract
Standard sufficient conditions for identification in the regression discontinuity design are continuity of the conditional expectation of counterfactual outcomes in the running variable. These continuity assumptions may not be plausible if agents are able to manipulate the running variable. This paper develops a test of manipulation related to continuity of the running variable density function. The methodology is applied to popular elections to the House of Representatives, where sorting is neither expected nor found, and to roll-call voting in the House, where sorting is both expected and found. I thank two anonymous referees for comments, the editors for multiple suggestions that substantially improved the paper, Jack Porter, John DiNardo, and Serena Ng for discussion, Jonah Gelbach for computing improvements, and Ming-Yen Cheng One reason for the increasing popularity in economics of regression discontinuity applications is the perception that the identifying assumptions are quite weak. However, while some applications of the design can be highly persuasive, many are subject to the criticism that public knowledge of the treatment assignment rule may invalidate the continuity assumptions at the heart of identification.
Keyphrases
regression discontinuity design density test continuity assumption jonah gelbach public knowledge serena ng variable density function popular election counterfactual outcome roll-call voting treatment assignment rule jack porter conditional expectation identifying assumption multiple suggestion ming-yen cheng one reason john dinardo regression discontinuity application anonymous referee standard sufficient condition
