Real-time data, professional forecasters and the output gap in an estimated New Keynesian model (2012)
by
Frank Smets
,
Anders Warne
,
Rafael Wouters
BibTeX
@MISC{Smets12real-timedata,,
author = {Frank Smets and Anders Warne and Rafael Wouters},
title = {Real-time data, professional forecasters and the output gap in an estimated New Keynesian model},
year = {2012}
}
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Abstract
This paper analyses the real-time forecasting performance of the New Keynesian model of Gali, Smets and Wouters (2011) estimated on euro area data. It investigates to what extent forecasts of in‡ation, GDP growth and unemployment by professional forecasters improve the forecasting performance. Finally, it examines to what extent the output gap and its underlying structural shocks depend on the realtime nature of the data.
