A Learning Model for Forecasting the Future of Information Technology (1986)
| Citations: | 8 - 7 self |
BibTeX
@MISC{Gaines86alearning,
author = {Brian R. Gaines and Mildred L. G. Shaw},
title = {A Learning Model for Forecasting the Future of Information Technology},
year = {1986}
}
Years of Citing Articles
OpenURL
Abstract
System-theoretic accounts of the epistemological processes underlying knowledge acquisition have been shown to apply to both individual human behavior and social development processes, and to enable algorithms to be developed for computer-based systems modeling. Such accounts are applicable to the upper levels of the hierarchy of autonomous systems to provide models of socio-economic behavior. In this paper they are applied to the development of information technology, and used to account for past events and predict future trends in relevant industries such as computing and genetic engineering. Underlying all developments in information technology is a tiered succession of learning curves which make up the infrastructure of the relevant industries. The paper provides a framework for the industries based on this logical progression of developments. It links this empirically to key events in the development of computing and genetic engineering. It links it theoretically to a model of eco...







