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The Past and Future of Knowledge-based Growth (2012)
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BibTeX
@MISC{Strulik12thepast,
author = {Holger Strulik and Klaus Prettner and Alexia Prskawetz},
title = {The Past and Future of Knowledge-based Growth },
year = {2012}
}
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Abstract
Conventional R&D-based growth theory argues that productivity growth is driven by population growth but the data suggest that the erstwhile positive correlation between population and productivity turned negative during the 20th century. In order to resolve this problem we integrate R&D-based innovations into a unified growth framework with micro-founded fertility and schooling behavior. The model explains the historical emergence of R&D-based growth and the subsequent emergence of mass education and the demographic transition. The ongoing child quality-quantity trade-off during the transition explains why in modern economies highgrowthofproductivityandincomeisassociatedwithlowornegativepopulation growth. Because growth in modern economies is based on the education of the workforce, the medium-run prospects for future economic growth – when fertility is going to be below replacement level in virtually all developed countries – are much better than suggested by conventional R&D-based growth theories.
Keyphrases
knowledge-based growth conventional d-based growth theory erstwhile positive correlation micro-founded fertility d-based innovation productivity growth developed country demographic transition ongoing child quality-quantity trade-off mass education medium-run prospect subsequent emergence modern economy growth data suggest population growth historical emergence d-based growth replacement level 20th century modern economy unified growth framework future economic growth
