Abstract

Most theories in the areas of personality, clinical, and social psychology predict no more than the direction of a correlation, group difference, or treatment effect. Since the null hypothesis is never strictly true, such predictions have about a SO-SO chance of being confirmed by experiment when the theory in question is false, since the statistical significance of the result is a function of the sample size. Confirmation of a single directional prediction should usually add little to one's confidence in the theory being tested. Most theories should be tested by multiple corroboration and most empirical generalizations by constructive replication. Statistical significance is perhaps the least important attribute of a good experiment; it is never a sufficient condition for claiming that a theory has been usefully corroborated, that a meaningful empirical fact has been established, or that an experimental report ought to be published. 151 In a recent journal article Sapolsky (1964) developed the following substantive theory:

Citations

11	A study of anxiety in the sociopathic personality - Lykken - 1957
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7	Tactics of Scientific Research - Sidman - 1960
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1	cognition and the autonomic nervous system. Nebraska Symposium on motivation - SCHACHTER, LATENT - 1964