Abstract

In this paper we analyze the level of democracy achieved by 19 Latin American countries after 1977, in the period between the transitions from authoritarian rule and 2004. Our study shows enduring regime legacies: despite authoritarian interruptions in the past, the best predictor of the current level of democracy is the country’s experience with competitive politics during the “first ” (1900–44) and the “second ” (1945–77) waves (and counter waves) of democratization. We document the impact of regime legacies using a fixed-effects vector decomposition model. Our finding resembles, but does not strictly confirm, theoretical claims about “path dependence ” in democratization. RESUMEN En este trabajo analizamos el nivel de democracia alcanzado por 19 países latinoamericanos a partir de 1977, en el período transcurrido entre las transiciones del autoritarismo y el año 2004. Nuestro análisis muestra legados políticos persistentes: a pesar de las interrupciones autoritarias en el pasado, el factor que mejor predice el nivel de democracia actual es la experiencia de cada país con la vida política competitiva

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