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The Historical Fertility Transition: A Guide for Economists (2010)
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BibTeX
@MISC{Guinnane10thehistorical,
author = {Timothy W. Guinnane and Timothy Guinnane and Barbara Okun and Cormac Ó Gráda and Jean-laurent Rosenthal and Mark Rosenzweig and Paul Schultz},
title = {The Historical Fertility Transition: A Guide for Economists},
year = {2010}
}
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Abstract
The historical fertility transition is the process by which much of Europe and North America went from high to low fertility in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. This transformation is central to recent accounts of long-run economic growth. Prior to the transition, women bore as many as eight children each, and the elasticity of fertility with respect to incomes was positive. Today, many women have no children at all, and the elasticity of fertility with respect to incomes is zero or even negative. This paper discusses the large literature on the historical fertility transition, focusing on what we do and do not know about the process. I stress some possible misunderstandings of the demographic literature, and discuss an agenda for future work. Key words: JEL Codes: Fertility transition, long-run growth, Malthusian models, quantity-quality trade-off
Keyphrases
historical fertility transition fertility transition future work key word malthusian model large literature low fertility recent account many woman north america possible misunderstanding jel code early twentieth century demographic literature quantity-quality trade-off long-run growth long-run economic growth
