Options and Impact of Chinas Pension Reform (2001)
| Citations: | 2 - 0 self |
BibTeX
@MISC{Equilibrium01optionsand,
author = {Computable General Equilibrium and Yan Wang and Dianqing Xu and Zhi Wang and Fan Zhai and Louise Fox and E. C. Hwa and Shantong Li and Jun Ma and Yvonne Sin and Larry Thompson and Xiaoqing Yu and Kangbin Zheng},
title = {Options and Impact of Chinas Pension Reform},
year = {2001}
}
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Abstract
eral Equilibrium (CGE) model that differentiates among three types of enterprise ownership and 22 labor force groups, this study estimates the effects of China's pension reform and compares various options for financing the implicit pension debt and transition cost. The study examines the impacts various reform options would have on the sustainability of the system, on overall economic growth, and on income distribution. Results from simulations of the various options are promising: . The baseline scenario. Because China's population is growing at a decreasing rate, the labor force will stop growing between 2015 and 2020 and will decline afterward, but the populations age 65 and over will continue to grow. Thus, the old age dependency ratio will rise steadily from 11 percent in 1999 to 25 percent in 2030 and 36 percent in 2050. The system dependency ratio, which is currently as high as 30 percent with three workers supporting one retiree, will rise rapidly to 69 percent in 2030 and 79
Keyphrases
china pension reform various option eral equilibrium transition cost income distribution overall economic growth system dependency ratio impact various reform option labor force group labor force population age baseline scenario implicit pension debt old age dependency ratio pension reform enterprise ownership
