Climate-Chemical Interactions and Effects of Changing Atmospheric Trace Gases
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@MISC{_climate-chemicalinteractions,
author = {},
title = {Climate-Chemical Interactions and Effects of Changing Atmospheric Trace Gases},
year = {}
}
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Abstract
The problem concerning the greenhouse effects of human activities has broadened in scope frbm the CO2-climate problem to the trace gas-climate problem. The climat effects of non-CO 2 trace gases are strongly governed by interactions between chemistry, radiation, and dynamics. We discuss in delfiil the natuie of the trace gas radiative heating and describe the importance of radiative-chemical interactions within the troposphere and the stratosphere. We make an assessment of the trace gas effects on troposphere-stratosphere temperature trends for the period covering the preindustrial era to the present and for the next several decades. Non-CO 2 greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are now adding to the greenhouseffect by an amount comparable to the effect of CO 2. The rate of decadal increase of the total greenhouse forcing is now 3-6 times greater than the mean rate for th • period 1850-1960. Timedependent calculations with a simplified one-dimensional diffusive ocean model suggest that a surface warming about 0.4-0.8 K should have occurred during 1850 to 1980. For the various trace gas scenarios considered in this study, the equilibrium surface warming for the period 1980 to 2030 ranges from 0.8 to 4.1 K. This wide range in the projected warming is due to the range in the assumed scenario as well as due to the threefold uncertainty in the sensitivity of climate models. For the 180-year period from 1850 to 2030, our analysi suggests a trace gas-induced cumulativ equilibrium surface warming in the ronge of
